Tuesday 24 Sep 2024 {HMC} US President Joe Biden has spent nearly a year vowing his determination to prevent the war in Gaza engulfing the wider Middle East. On Tuesday, he repeated that resolve in his last ever United Nations speech as president, as he addressed the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

“A diplomatic solution is still possible. In fact, remains the only path to lasting security,” Biden said.

“Full scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” he added.

But the Israel-Lebanon crisis is now on the brink.

And Biden’s calls for restraint from the podium of the UN, like his pleas for Israel and Hamas to finally reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal, are being heard in the hall but not in the region.

On Monday, Israel unleashed hundreds of airstrikes on Lebanon, inflicting the deadliest day on the country since the end of its bloody, sectarian civil war more than three decades ago. Israel’s bombardment killed more than 500 people, according to Lebanese health officials.

Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group that dominates the country – reeling and damaged from Israel’s wave of exploding pager attacks last week – launched hundreds of rockets into northern Israel, smashing homes and setting streets ablaze.

Once again the US is trying to restrain Israel, the key regional ally it arms, and urging its adversaries against escalating too, all the while seeking a diplomatic outcome that the sides themselves lack either the ability or will to agree.

Follow live updates.

Israel says it’s acting to disarm the Lebanese militia so Israeli residents can return to their homes in the north. Hezbollah says it’s been striking Israel for the past 11 months to deter and degrade Israeli attacks on Palestinians in Gaza. Months of shuttle diplomacy by the US envoy Amos Hochstein – building on already established UN Security Resolutions on Israel and Hezbollah – have come to nothing.

Instead, in another split screen moment as Biden was urging calm at the podium at the UN, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted a video on X vowing: “We will continue to hit Hezbollah. He who has a missile in his living room and a rocket in his garage – he will not have a home.”

The White House supports what it calls Israel’s right to hit Hezbollah. But the often dysfunctional political relationship with the Israeli leadership has again become apparent over recent weeks, amid serious concerns in the administration that the exploding pager attacks and subsequent Israeli airstrikes could lead to all out war.

No call between Biden and Netanyahu was announced despite the crisis of the last week. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently made his tenth trip to the region since the 7 October attacks but for the first time did not visit Israel. Critics both within and outside the administration have repeatedly blamed an inability of the White House to wield influence over Netanyahu on a failure to condition US weapons supply. The administration categorically rejects this, saying it is committed to Israel’s defence.

President Biden always believed the key to solving the crisis on the Israel-Lebanon border, involving 11 months of cross border fire and tens of thousands of people displaced on either side, was instead clinching the ceasefire deal in Gaza. But this is badly stalled with few signs either side is willing to reach it. Blinken recently pinned this on a lack of “political will” by both Israel and Hamas.

The White House denies that it is pursuing a diplomatic effort doomed to defeat – and that President Biden, with four months left in office, has given up hope of achieving a breakthrough.

“No, he absolutely hasn’t given up,” White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said of Biden’s attempts to reach a deal that would end the war in Gaza.

“There have been difficulties and setbacks. We’ve had challenges getting the [Israeli] prime minister across the line. We’ve had challenges getting Hamas’s leader Sinwar across the line. But we’re determined to keep at it,” Mr Sullivan told CNN.

“The president this week in New York will be huddling with other leaders to try to bring about a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza and really critically, to try and avert an all-out war in the Middle East.”

Behind the scenes here in New York, a stream of diplomacy is taking place. According to a senior state department official, the US is presenting allies with potential plans to resolve the crisis between Israel and Hezbollah.

“We’ve got some concrete ideas we’re going to be discussing with allies and partners this week to try to figure out the way forward on this,” said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Pressed on what the “concrete ideas” were, the official would not be drawn, noting instead that while the US does not speak directly to Hezbollah, some of its allies gathered in New York do and these partners “might have a more refined sense of Hezbollah thinking so we can stress test our ideas.”

But the official also renewed US opposition to any Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon. And they rejected Israeli officials’ reported belief that ramping up the conflict with Hezbollah could force them into cutting a diplomatic deal that would stabilise the situation on either side of the Israel-Lebanon border – a strategy referred to as “de-escalation by escalation”.

“I can’t recall, at least in recent memory, a period in which an escalation or intensification led to a fundamental de escalation and led to profound stabilisation of the situation,” said the official.

SOURCE BBC 

Tuesday 24 Sep 2024 {HMC} In recent months, tensions have flared dramatically across the Horn of Africa, with the arrival of Egyptian troops in Somalia signaling what could escalate into a regional war. The friction between Ethiopia’s contentious sea access agreement with Somaliland and the decades-long disputes over the Nile River between Ethiopia and Egypt have all contributed to a growing sense of unease in the region.

Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia’s prime minister, issued a stark warning to potential aggressors: Anyone planning on invading this country should “think 10 times” before doing so. Meanwhile, Turkey and other neighboring nations are scrambling to mediate, with Djibouti even offering Ethiopia control over the critical Tadjoura port in a bid to reduce hostilities. Despite these efforts, the threat of a broader conflict looms ever larger.

A fractured history

Egypt and Ethiopia share a long, complicated history. As two of Africa’s first independent nations and founding members of the United Nations in 1945, their diplomatic ties stretch back decades. Yet, this shared history is riddled with fractures, exacerbated by Cold War dynamics and conflicting geopolitical allegiances.

While Egypt aligned with the Soviet Union during the Camp David Accords, Ethiopia sided with Israel and the United States in the Arab-Israeli conflicts. At the heart of this rivalry lies the Nile River, an essential lifeline for both nations. Ethiopia’s control over one of the river’s primary tributaries—and its recent dam project—threatens Egypt’s water security, adding historical weight to the current crisis.

The roots of Egypt’s fears run deep, dating back to the 1950s when Ethiopia first considered building a dam. Despite its capability, successive Ethiopian governments refrained from such projects, wary of provoking Egyptian retaliation. In the 1970s, Egypt threatened military action if Ethiopia moved forward. Even into the 21st century, the threat persisted, with former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak reportedly stating that Egypt would be ready to fight any new dam construction on the Nile.

A military standoff in the making?

The situation has deteriorated further with the deployment of Egyptian troops to Somalia, a move widely perceived as a bid by Cairo to assert its dominance in a region where it has long clashed with Ethiopia’s interests.

At the core of this confrontation is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Egypt views as a direct challenge to its share of the Nile waters. Cairo has issued warnings for years, insisting that any reduction in its Nile water supply would be intolerable. Now, with over 10,000 Egyptian troops in Somalia, it seems Egypt is prepared to back its rhetoric with force.

Ethiopia has expressed grave concern over Egypt’s military presence in Somalia, particularly as it edges closer to their shared borders. Although reactions among the neighboring communities vary, the deployment has sparked widespread criticism, especially in regions where suspicion of Egyptian motives runs high. While bracing for the worst, Ethiopia has so far adopted a cautious stance, emphasizing its readiness to defend its interests at any cost.

Diplomacy on the brink

Amid escalating tensions, Ethiopia has intensified its diplomatic outreach, particularly with Somaliland and Turkey. Turkey has emerged as a crucial player in the crisis, facilitating two rounds of indirect talks between Somalia and Ethiopia. However, concrete progress remains elusive. A third round of negotiations is scheduled for next month, but with the situation rapidly deteriorating, hopes for a peaceful resolution appear dim.

Djibouti, an important regional hub and long-standing ally of Ethiopia, has extended a potentially game-changing offer: granting Ethiopia full sovereignty over the Tadjoura port. This strategic asset would provide Ethiopia with an alternative to the contested Somaliland port, potentially easing some tension. Yet, whether this gesture will be seen as a timely intervention or a belated offer remains to be seen.

A region on the edge

The Horn of Africa is teetering on the brink of a full-scale regional war, with the potential to draw in other powers with vested interests. Turkey, Iran, and the Gulf States have stakes in the region, and their involvement could further complicate the conflict. Moreover, the presence of proxy groups like Somalia’s Al-Shabab insurgents or the Yemeni Houthis could ignite a broader, more chaotic war, escalating the human and economic toll.

The stakes could not be higher. If the crisis continues unchecked, it risks becoming one of Africa’s most volatile and dangerous flashpoints. The people of Somalia, Ethiopia, Egypt, and the broader Horn of Africa may face devastating consequences. The situation demands urgent, sustained diplomatic efforts from regional and international actors to prevent a descent into widespread violence and instability.

SOURCE