Wednesday 17 April ,2024 {HMC} — Israel is vowing to retaliate against Iran, risking further expanding the shadow war between the two foes into a direct conflict after an Iranian attack over the weekend sent hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel.

Israeli officials have not said how or when they might strike. But as countries around the world urge Israel to show restraint and the threat of a multi-front war mounts, it’s clear that a direct Israeli attack on Iranian soil would lead to major fallout.

Iran says it carried out the strike to avenge an Israeli airstrike that killed two Iranian generals in Syria on April 1. It has pledged a much tougher response to any Israeli counterattack attack on its soil.

With Israel focused on its war against Hamas in Gaza, and already battling Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon every day, the U.S. has urged Israel to show restraint.

U.S. officials say President Joe Biden has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. will not participate in any offensive action against Iran, and the president made “very clear” to Netanyahu “that we do have to think carefully and strategically” about the risks of escalation.

Israel’s war cabinet has spent the last two days debating their next move. Here are some considerations key to their decision.

INCREASING ISRAELI ISOLATION

Israel’s successful air defense Saturday night — conducted in tandem with the U.S., Britain, France and Jordan — bought the country a brief moment of international support and sympathy after months of mounting international isolation over the Gaza war. The six-month offensive has killed nearly 34,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and unleashed a humanitarian catastrophe.

A coalition of international partners helped Israel defend itself effectively. Israel’s military says 99% of the weapons were intercepted, with few reaching Israeli airspace. The attack caused only minor damage and wounded one person: a 7-year-old girl.

This coalition worked under the leadership of the U.S. Central Command, which oversees American forces in the region. It works closely with Israel and moderate Arab countries to form a unified front against Iran.

Jordan, a country whose population is predominantly pro-Palestinian, joined the effort, despite being at odds with Israel over the war in Gaza, calling its participation self-defense.

It also appears likely that help may have come from regional powerhouse Saudi Arabia, which does not have official relations with Israel. A map released by Israel shows many of the Iranian missiles flying through Saudi airspace.

Israel has been careful not to identify its Arab partners, but an Israeli air force official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the mission, said Israeli warplanes needed to fly “east of Israel” to shoot down missiles.

Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank, said Israel would be risking this goodwill if it acts alone.

“Israel can take advantage of this and buy itself a lot of credit right now, if it does not launch a massive retaliatory attack,” he said. “But if it does attack, a lot of credit is lost.”

The tacit support of Arab states does not mean they would assist Israel in a counterattack on Iran. Any air or missile response other than ballistic missiles — which would arc over neighboring countries’ airspace rather than through it — would require overflights of surrounding countries, which technically would require Israel obtain permission from those Arab neighbors, said Daniel Byman, a senior fellow with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“With Saudi Arabia and Jordan, there’s kind of a route and access questions,” in terms of whether they would grant Israel overflight clearance.

“From Iran’s point of view, that would be seen as a hostile act,” Byman said. “And even though these countries don’t like Iran, they’re not terribly eager to be seen on the side of Israel doing that.”

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FEARS OF A MULTI-FRONT WAR
A major retaliatory strike on Iranian soil risks sparking a full-scale regional war, so any response must be carefully calculated.

A direct strike on Iranian soil would almost certainly result in a brutal counterattack and risk prompting Hezbollah to launch further attacks. The Iranian-backed Lebanese group has a far more powerful arsenal than Hamas, but has so far shown hesitancy about engaging in an all-out war.

Some 60,000 citizens in northern Israel already have been forced to evacuate their homes due to ongoing exchanges with Hezbollah. Heavier fighting would likely force them to spend even more time away from home.

A direct conflict would also further stretch Israel’s military, remove its focus from Gaza and hamper Israel’s war-wearied economy.

Any major attack on Iranian soil could also undermine shaky U.S. support for the war.

Two U.S. officials said Israel has not yet told the U.S. how it intends to respond. But the officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe diplomatic discussions, said Israel has signaled that whatever it does will be designed to prevent a worsening of the already tense regional security situation. That could point to a more limited action, such as a strike on Iranian proxies across the region or a cyber attack on Iran.

Tamar Hermann, a polling expert at the Israel Democracy Institute, says most Israelis are in favor of some sort of military response as long as it is coordinated with regional allies, including the United States.

“If it is done with no consultation and no agreement with allies … support will be much smaller,” Hermann said.

MILITARY CAPACITY

Israel’s army is vastly superior to others in the region. It possesses a range of high-tech weaponry, including F35 fighter planes that can launch long-range munitions. Experts say it has the ability to directly strike Iran or its proxies in the region.

Fabian Hinz, a weapons expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the Iranian air force is “not even remotely comparable.” He said the force is composed of a collection of planes from the 1980s and 90s, with some dating back to the reign of the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi who ruled the country until 1979.

The extent of the Islamic republic’s air defense system is less known, he said. Many of Iran’s missile sites and nuclear installations are deep underground, making them difficult to hit, Hindz added. Israel might also need the agreement of Gulf Arab countries to use their airspace — something that is not guaranteed.

“I don’t think it’s going to be a full-scale Israeli attack against many targets all over Iran,” said Raz Zimmt, another senior researcher at Israel’s INSS. “It will probably be limited against one or two, perhaps inside Iran.”

Associated Press reporters Matthew Lee and Ellen Knickmeyer contributed from Washington D.C.

SOURCE apnews

Wednesday 17 April ,2024 {HMC} Heavy rain has battered some Gulf states, causing flash flooding across the region and leading to flights to the world’s busiest international airport being diverted.

Dubai Airport said operations were “temporarily diverted” – though they have since restarted.

Authorities in Oman said at least 18 people had been killed by floods.

Several states recorded nearly a year’s worth of rain in a day.

Unverified video from Dubai International Airport appeared to show jets leaving waves in their wake as they made their way down flooded runways.

In a statement, the airport said inbound flights due to arrive on Tuesday evening had been diverted “due to the continued exceptional weather event currently being experienced in the UAE”.

Departures would continue to operate, it added. Flights later restarted after an interruption of about two hours.

Some commentators have linked the unusual weather to climate change, saying exceptional storms will become more common in future as the planet warms.

For every 1C rise in average temperature, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more moisture. This can result in more droplets and heavier rainfall, sometimes in a shorter space of time and over a smaller area.

The UAE – one of the world’s biggest oil producers – hosted last year’s COP28 climate change conference.

On Tuesday morning, the UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology issued a weather warning for large swathes of the country, including Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Sharjah.

The Gulf region is usually known for hot and dry weather, though heavy rains causing flooding have also occurred with greater regularity in recent years.

In neighbouring Oman, authorities said the death toll from flash floods had increased to 18, with some still missing. The dead included 10 students aged between 10 and 15 who were killed on 14 April when the vehicle they were travelling in attempted to cross a flooded area but was swept away.

In Bahrain, footage showed cars stranded in flooded roads.

SOURCE BBC

Wednesday 17 April ,2024 {HMC}  U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned in prepared remarks Tuesday of further sanctions targeting Iran, following its unprecedented attack on Israel over the weekend.

“Treasury will not hesitate to work with our allies to use our sanctions authority to continue disrupting the Iranian regime’s malign and destabilizing activity,” according to excerpts of Yellen’s speech ahead of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington this week.

Months of war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza have triggered violence in the region involving Iranian proxies and allies who say they act in support of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

But tensions have soared even higher with Tehran’s first direct assault on Israel, in retaliation for a deadly April 1 strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus.

The attack has prompted appeals for de-escalation by world leaders fearing wider conflict.

In prepared remarks released Tuesday ahead of a press briefing, Yellen said U.S. authorities have been using economic tools to counter Iran’s activity, taking aim at its drone and missile programs, as well as its financing of groups like Hamas.

“From this weekend’s attack to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, Iran’s actions threaten the region’s stability and could cause economic spillovers,” she warned.

Yellen on Tuesday is also set to outline U.S. priorities during the spring meetings, including deepening ties with allies and partners.

Later in the morning, the Treasury chief convenes a fourth meeting of the U.S.-China financial and economic working groups, aimed in part at exchanging data to make headway on issues like excess industrial capacity.

And with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine entering a third year, Yellen added in the prepared remarks that the United States is furthering work with global partners to “unlock the economic value of immobilized Russian sovereign assets and ensure that Russia pays for the damage it has caused.”

She urged the House of Representatives to give the green light to further support for Ukraine, adding that the United States has in recent times unveiled sanctions targeting Russia as well since the war.

This includes on its National Payment Card System and on Russian regional financial institutions.

On Monday, a senior Treasury official told reporters that the spring meetings bring an “opportunity” for progress in tapping immobilized Russian assets to aid Ukraine, although they did not commit to specific outcomes.

SOURCE

hurriyetdailynews

Wednesday 17 April ,2024{HMC}  Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for restraint as Israel weighs its response to Iran’s unprecedented weekend drone and missile attack.

Putin made the remarks in a phone call with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on Tuesday. The leaders discussed what the Kremlin called “retaliatory measures taken by Iran” after an Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital, Damascus, on April 1.

Putin urged all sides to refrain from action that would trigger a new confrontation that would have catastrophic consequences for the Middle East, the Kremlin said.

Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel late on Saturday in response to the Israeli strike in Damascus, which killed seven officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals.

Putin, in his first publicly aired comments on Iran’s attack, said the root cause of the current instability in the Middle East was the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“Vladimir Putin expressed hope that all sides would show reasonable restraint and prevent a new round of confrontation fraught with catastrophic consequences for the entire region,” the Kremlin said.

“Ebrahim Raisi noted that Iran’s actions were forced and limited in nature,” the Kremlin said. “At the same time, he stressed Tehran’s disinterest in further escalation of tensions.”

Raisi thanked Russia for its position towards Iran’s response to Israel and said the inaction of the international community and the destructive role of some Western countries forced Iran to carry out the recent operation, according to Iran’s presidency.

Raisi reiterated that any action against Iran’s interests will demand a larger-scale response, the presidency said.

Russia, which has forged close ties with both Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and several Arab leaders, has repeatedly scolded the West for ignoring the need for an independent Palestinian state within 1967 borders.

“Both sides stated that the root cause of the current events in the Middle East is the unresolved Palestinian-Israeli conflict,” the Kremlin said of the call with Raisi.

“In this regard, the principled approaches of Russia and Iran in favour of an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, easing the difficult humanitarian situation, and creating conditions for a political and diplomatic settlement of the crisis were confirmed.”

Putin, who in 2022 visited Khamenei, congratulated Raisi and all Muslims on the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan.

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Iran has provided Russia with a large number of surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and drones that Moscow has used to attack Ukraine.

SOURCE aljazeera

Tuesday April 16, 2024

East African Community member states must support Somalia’s efforts to curb destabilising criminal markets.

On 15 December 2023, Somalia took a step closer to joining the East African Community (EAC) by signing the treaty to become the bloc’s eighth member. The move could benefit Somalia and its fellow members immensely, but only if the entrenched criminal markets that threaten Somalia’s stability and economic recovery are dismantled.

For existing EAC states, benefits include greater competitiveness for foreign direct investment. Reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers, opening cross-border trade, creating new business opportunities in Somalia, and integrating into regional infrastructure projects will boost trade in the region. The EAC’s eastern boundaries will stretch from the southern Indian Ocean up to the Gulf of Aden – a vital global maritime route – enhancing cooperation with major world powers on security, trade and geopolitics.

For Somalia, joining the EAC will provide access to a market of 283.7 million citizens, free movement of its people around the bloc, and the economic benefits of regional integration. This would be a shot in the arm for its post-conflict recovery and reconstruction.

However Somalia is grappling with weak governance, instability, violent extremism and transnational organised crime. After decades of state fragility, the country is fertile territory for criminal markets ranging from arms and human trafficking to extortion, environmental crimes, piracy, money laundering and illicit financial flows. These complex and often intractable problems will likely impede Somalia’s successful integration into the EAC.

When piracy peaked off the coast of Somalia between 2005 and 2011, it took concerted efforts by world naval powers to stop the attacks. Now piracy again threatens the Gulf of Aden due to the ongoing Gaza conflict.

Before the conflict, around 22% of containerised shipping and 12% of global trade passed through the Red Sea. In recent months, Houthi rebels in Yemen have attacked and hijacked vessels deemed affiliated with Israeli, European and United States (US) ships in protest against Israel’s attacks on Palestine. This evolving maritime conflict has forced ships to re-route, delaying the delivery of goods and hiking prices to the detriment of Somalia and other EAC members.

Somalia’s inability to manage its ports effectively makes the coastline a haven for arms traffickers who stockpile weapons for terrorist groups and clan militias. US sanctions against groups and individuals show the intricate transnational smuggling networks in Somalia, the Gulf region and Iran.

A United Nations expert panel has questioned the Somali government’s ability to track weapons, curb illicit flows to terrorist groups and organised criminals, and control arms trafficking along its coastline. Due to porous harbours and corrupt deals between government officials and traders, Somalia is awash with counterfeit goods. These are smuggled into the country and onward into East Africa through elaborate networks.

Somalia is also both a source and transit country for human trafficking and smuggling. High levels of unemployment, insurgency-linked humanitarian crises and climate-induced disasters are causing thousands to flee to neighbouring countries, the Gulf region and Europe. Similar numbers are displaced within the country.

Al-Shabaab, with its links to al-Qaeda, raises around US$100 million annually through roadblock ‘tolls’, extortion and illegal charcoal sales. The income funds the group’s terror operations, which undermine Somalia’s judicial, financial and security infrastructure and regional stability.

Although the federal government’s capacity to curb money laundering and illicit financial flows is growing, it is still inadequate. There are fears that the free movement of people and labour within the EAC will allow terror operatives to infiltrate other countries and expand their attacks.

The impending withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by December 2024 could create a security vacuum that terrorist groups might take advantage of. EAC membership could assist since some of the main countries contributing to the mission are member states. Somalia could request the deployment of EAC standby forces to fill the void as the country works to strengthen its security forces.

There are several ways in which the EAC can help Somalia deal with transnational organised crime. Regarding maritime threats, Kenya could leverage its membership in the Combined Maritime Forces – the multinational naval partnership that promotes security and prosperity across 5.1 million square kilometres of international waters.

Using its One-Stop Border Posts and other migration policies, the regional bloc could help build the capacity of Somali institutions to curb human trafficking flows and attendant crimes. For its part, Somalia needs to align its migration policy with that of the EAC by improving cross-border surveillance, screening immigrants and completing registration at points of entry.

Dr Hassan Khannenje, a Horn of Africa expert, told the ENACT organised crime project that ‘joining the EAC will allow Somalia to learn from successes, challenges and regional best practices about controlling illicit financial flows. EAC member states will be better placed to share financial intelligence and track money laundering and terror financing than ever before.’ This suggests immense benefits to be gained from Somalia joining the Eastern and Southern Africa Anti-Money Laundering Group.

As Somalia prepares to deposit its instrument of ratification with the EAC’s Secretary General, EAC member states should consider how toprevent Somalia’s transnational organised crime challenges from spreading into the region.

This article was first published by ENACT.

Wednesday 17 April ,2024{HMC}  Most of the beds at the labour ward of Kihara Level 4 Hospital on the outskirts of the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, are empty.

Only three are occupied out of more than a dozen.

A nurse says the hospital is not taking in women who need a Caesarean as there is no doctor to perform the operation.

The doctors here – and across the country – have been on strike for about a month now.

Public hospitals are virtually empty. There is an unsettling silence in places normally brimming with people seeking a host of critical services.

Patients are now forced to go to expensive private hospitals or delay treatment, resulting in worsening chronic illnesses and sometimes deaths.

Doctors are striking over a number of issues, including pay and the failure to hire trainee doctors, who cannot qualify without getting an intern position.

The medics are aware of the problems the strike is causing but argue that industrial action is necessary “to help the public get quality health care” in the long run, as their working conditions and the lack of equipment mean they cannot treat patients properly, says Davji Bhimji, the secretary-general of the doctors’ union, KMPDU.

“Sometimes we are just there to supervise death,” he tells the BBC.

President William Ruto has asked the striking doctors to return to work and agree to the offer that the government has made, saying the country must “live according to our means”.

Many who have had to rely on the public health service are sympathetic as they have seen the problems for themselves, but that sympathy is being tested.

One woman tells the BBC that her sister-in-law, who was in labour and needed an operation, lost her unborn child because of the strike.

The patient had travelled from western Kenya, where she could not get treatment, to the main referral hospital in Nairobi, but was turned away.

She was eventually taken to a private hospital but it was too late to save her baby.

Lucy Bright Mbugua, 26, says her 10-month-old baby has been at the Kenyatta National Hospital in Nairobi since January.

Her baby is being treated for a condition that requires constant attention but only a few doctors are available. They now come around twice a week rather than daily.

“It’s painful when there is no service. The baby is suffering and there are no drugs,” she tells the BBC.

Her mother, Anne, says she often spends nights at the outpatient centre so that she is available for her daughter, and to save on transport costs.

The peasant farmer, who came to Nairobi from her rural home 200km (125 miles) away after her grandchild got sick, says she is trying to help her daughter financially but it is very difficult.

“Why can’t they sit down and agree,” she says of the striking doctors and the government, adding that “we, the small fish, are really suffering” – a view echoed by many.

Some have been seeking solace in prayers.

A pastor in Kibera, one of the biggest slums in Nairobi, says he has been seeing about five sick people a week.

“You know that they require to be seen by doctors, but if there is no treatment, you offer prayers so that they stop having other thoughts or give up hope,” Pastor Stephen Genda tells the BBC.

The problems have now been compounded as clinical officers have joined the strike.

They provide outpatient services and constitute the backbone of healthcare, especially in rural areas. But they have vowed not to budge until their demands are met.

“The government is not going to give anything without a fight,” says Peterson Wachira, the chairman of the Kenya Union of Clinical Officers.

The government says it is paying salary arrears to doctors and has offered to hire intern doctors.

The offer followed negotiations, including court-mandated talks that involved representatives of different government departments.

But the doctors rejected it, saying the pay being offered to interns amounted to a big reduction of the amount that had been agreed in a 2017 deal.

The government set the new figure at $540 (£430) a month, but the union says $1,600 had been agreed for pay and allowances in the deal.

The authorities have been unable to hire all the trainee doctors as they say there is not enough money to pay all the prospective interns.

This has left many feeling bitter and unwanted.

Micheni Mike, a graduate doctor waiting to be posted, told the BBC at the beginning of the strike that the government “does not prioritise you and the skills that you hold”.

Shirley Ogalo, a dental surgeon who is also waiting to be hired, says that graduating was a very a nice moment “but now I’m fighting”.

“You see your colleagues – the people who did other courses – they are flourishing. Some have started families. It’s depressing, it gives you a lot of frustration,” she tells the BBC.

The authorities are beginning to take a harder line.

Some of the governors heading county governments, which are responsible for the bulk of health functions, have threatened to sack the doctors.

The Council of Governors Health Committee chairman, Muthomi Njuki, has said some of the doctors’ demands were “unreasonable” and “difficult to implement”.

One public hospital in Nairobi announced last week that it was laying off more than 100 doctors participating in the strike. But up to now the health workers have vowed to stay put.

Mr Bhimji accused the government of not being “concerned about the services that we offer, otherwise if they had concerns they would be sitting down and discussing” the issues.

Religious figures and opposition leaders are among those who have called on the government to re-open negotiations with the doctors and have the hospitals back running.

But this could still drag on for months – the stoppage in 2017 lasted about 100 days.

But Ms Mbugua, who has a 10-month-old sick baby, hopes the strike will end soon.

“We want the doctors to come back – for things to be normal again,” she says.