Tuesday 9, April ,2024 {HMC}  The number of children born in Kenya from 2050 may not be enough to sustain the country’s population size for long, new projections have shown.

This means several years later, Kenya’s population could shrink unless there is immigration from other countries.

The projections have been attributed to the consistent fall in the number of children born to a Kenyan woman over her lifetime, from eight in the 1950s to less than three today.

The number, known as total fertility rate, will decline further to about 1.8 (one or two children) in 2050 and reduce to 1.4 in the year 2100.

In general, countries need to have a total fertility rate of 2.1 children (replacement level) to sustain their population size.

The new projections have been published in the Lancet journal.

“Human civilisation is rapidly converging on a sustained low-fertility reality,” authors of the study said.

Their study projects fertility trends in 204 countries and territories until 2100.

It is part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2021 – a global research effort led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine.

In projecting falling fertility for Kenya, the researchers assumed that by 2030, the country will have achieved universal female education or universal access to contraceptive, the two key drivers of fertility.

They said Kenya’s population will continue to increase naturally until the total fertility levels remain consistently below 2.1 children.

“In many ways, tumbling fertility rates are a success story, reflecting not only better, easily available contraception but also many women choosing to delay or have fewer children, as well as more opportunities for education and employment,” said senior author Proffessor Stein Vollset from IHME.

The decline in fertility is not unique to Kenya.

“Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level,” the researchers said.

The report says by the year 2100, only six countries (Somalia, Niger, Chad, Samoa, Tonga and Tajikistan) will have fertility rates exceeding 2.1 births per female.

However, because most fertility rate levels in Africa are still above two children per woman, the population will continue to rise even as fertility reduces.

In total, just 26 countries are still projected to be growing in population naturally (live births exceeding deaths) in 2100, including Uganda and the six above.

The experts said sustained low fertility will produce a population with fewer young people relative to older people before the end of the 21st century.

“Unless governments identify unforeseen innovations or funding sources that address the challenges of population ageing, this demographic shift will put increasing pressure on national health insurance, social security programmes and healthcare infrastructure,” the report said.

“These same programmes will receive less funding as working-age, tax-paying populations decline, further exacerbating the problem.”

The study is titled, “Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.”

It was produced jointly by hundreds of scientists from around the world. Scientists from Kenya were Dr Dickson Amugsi of the African Population & Health Research Centre and Dr Josephine Ngunjiri from the University of Embu.

The authors said although fertility rates have tumbled drastically in rich countries, the reduction is too slow in Africa.

They therefore predicted huge shifts in the global pattern of livebirths from higher- to lower-income countries.

In 2021, 29 per cent of the world’s babies were born in Sub-Saharan Africa, but by 2100, this is projected to rise to more than half (54 per cent) of all babies.

“These future trends in fertility rates and livebirths will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies,” said co-lead author Dr Natalia Bhattacharjee from IHME.

Another author said Africa’s population growth will only worsen the growing strain on food supplies in the future.

“As most of the world contends with the serious challenges to the economic growth of a shrinking workforce and how to care for and pay for aging populations, many of the most resource-limited countries in sub-Saharan Africa will be grappling with how to support the youngest, fastest-growing population on the planet in some of the most politically and economically unstable, heat-stressed and health system-strained places on earth,” said senior author Proffessor Stein Emil Vollset from IHME.

Gitau Mburu, James Kiarie and Pascale Allotey from the World Health Organization, who were not involved in the GBD study, said the findings largely agree with population growth estimates made by the United Nations.

However, they criticised the assumptions the authors made to conclude that most countries’ fertility rates would fall below 2.1 by 2100.

“Assumptions made within a model can underestimate or overestimate effects. By assuming that a contraceptive demand satisfied rate of 100 per cent could be achieved in multiple countries by 2030, the authors chose an ambitious but unrealistic assumption, because women might choose not to use modern contraceptives for a variety of reasons,” Gitau and his colleagues said.

“Currently, 75 per cent or higher is considered a realistic target and no country reports a contraceptive met need of 100 per cent.”

Gitau and his colleagues also noted that low total fertility rate per se is not necessarily bad.

They said the choice to have few or no children has to do with personal values, individual self-fulfilment and choice and might not be subject to policy directives.

They worried that faced with declining populations, some countries might try to reverse the trends by restricting access the contraception.

“Declines in TFR should not be used to limit or coerce utilisation of contraception, abortion, or fertility services,” they said.

The Media Line
Tuesday April 9, 2024

A severe cholera outbreak in Somalia has resulted in at least 60 fatalities over the past three months, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) reported on Sunday. The outbreak has seen a sharp increase in cases, with nearly 5,000 new infections being reported, of which 51% are female.

This ongoing health emergency, which has seen uninterrupted transmission since 2017, is experiencing a significant surge in infections this year, with the number of cases tripling compared to the same period over the last three years, according to the World Health Organization. About 62% of the recent cases have been classified as severe.

Children under 5 years old represent 59% of the cases, highlighting the risk the outbreak poses to this demographic. Cholera, an acute intestinal infection, can spread rapidly through contaminated food and water sources, often exacerbated by inadequate sanitation.

The recent upsurge in cholera cases is largely attributed to floods caused by El Niño toward the end of 2023, which not only claimed 118 lives but also displaced over 1 million people. These conditions have worsened the outbreak across various regions in Somalia, with significant incidents reported in multiple districts including Mogadishu, Afgoye, and Kismayo.

UNICEF’s report sheds light on the dire situation faced by many in Somalia, with the lack of access to clean water and sanitation facilities being a principal factor driving the outbreak. The aftermath of the 2023 El Niño-induced floods has intensified the cholera crisis.

El Niño is a complex climate phenomenon that occurs irregularly in the Pacific Ocean but has widespread effects on the global weather and climate, including in regions as distant as Somalia. It is characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, leading to significant shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns. These changes can disrupt normal weather patterns across much of the globe, including altering rainfall patterns, storms, and droughts in various parts of the world.

In Somalia, a country located in the Horn of Africa, El Niño can have profound impacts, often exacerbating existing vulnerabilities due to its primarily arid climate and dependence on agriculture and livestock for livelihoods. The effects of El Niño in Somalia typically manifest in one of two extreme weather conditions: increased rainfall or prolonged dry periods.

Tuesday 9, April ,2024 {HMC}  Kenya Red Cross has dispatched two boats to rescue stranded passengers in the Tana River.

According to the Red Cross, the 51 passengers were aboard the bus and were travelling from Garissa to Nairobi when the bus got marooned by raging waters.

The incident happened at Arer when the bus was swept by the waters due to the ongoing heavy rains.

KRC in a statement through their X handle said the first responders had also been sent to rescue the passengers.

“First responders in collaboration with community members are currently engaged in a challenging rescue operation to save the lives of several people stranded aboard a bus that has been marooned by raging waters at Arer near Tulla village in Tana River County,” KRC said.

“The incident occurred following heavy downpour. We have dispatched two rescue boats to ensure a swift and effective response.”

This comes even as the Kenya National Highways Authority announced the closure of the Nairobi-Garissa (A3) Road.

The authority closed the road due to flooding at Arer Area, between Bangaley and Madogo.

KeNHA said the flooding is a result of the ongoing heavy rains which occurred Monday night.

The rainfall resulted in the rising water levels along the entire stretch.

According to the Authority, the flooding at Arer has compromised the road and diversion that was previously in use.

“This poses a high safety risk to the road users. This road, therefore, shall remain closed until the flood waters subside and the damaged section is reinstated,” KeNHA said.

The Authority said its staff are on site ready to deal with the washout immediately after the water subsides.

On Tuesday, the weatherman warned that most parts of the country will continue to record heavy downpours this week.

This is contained in the five-day forecast by the Kenya Metrological Department covering April 9 to April 13.

The weatherman says some counties especially those in Northeastern Kenya will record higher temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius.

The National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA) issued a warning to road users concerning the potentially hazardous conditions brought about by heavy rains across the country.

In a statement released on Saturday, NTSA Director General George Njao emphasised the need for increased caution, urging the public to be extra-vigilant, courteous, and mindful of safety measures.

He highlighted the importance of looking out for vulnerable road users such as children and pedestrians.

Tuesday April 9, 2024

At least 38 migrants and refugees, including children, have died after their boat sank off the coast of Djibouti, the United Nations migration agency has said, after their bodies were recovered.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) said in a post on X on Tuesday that at least six others are missing and presumed dead, and that 22 survivors are being assisted by its representatives in the East African country, along with local officials.

This adds to nearly 1,000 people who have been recorded to have died or gone missing after embarking on the “Eastern Route” since 2014, the IOM said.

The treacherous journey on the infamous route takes migrants from Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti in the Horn of Africa through Yemen to other Arab countries in the region.

The route continues to see an increase in migrant journeys despite the dangers, with people seeking better livelihoods and with larger numbers of women and children travelling alone, according to the IOM.

In February, the agency reported that nearly 400,000 migrant movements were recorded across the Eastern Route in 2023.

Another route from the Horn of Africa to the south of the continent, particularly to South Africa, which is also identified by the UN as a highly dangerous and complex route, saw 80,000 movements in the same period.

At least 698 people, including women and children, died in 2023 while trying to cross the Gulf of Aden from Djibouti to Yemen in hopes of reaching Saudi Arabia, the IOM said in a report, adding that it provides assistance to more than 1.4 million migrants and host communities in the Horn of Africa, Yemen and Southern Africa.

Migrants and refugees leave home in search of better jobs, to escape conflict and insecurity, and the adverse effects of climate change. In addition to facing the threat of drowning in shipwrecks, they can also be exposed to starvation, health risks, and exploitation by traffickers.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA