21st January 2025, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) officially released the March to May (MAM) 2025 seasonal climate forecast. This season is critical for the equatorial part of the Greater Horn of Africa region and contributes up to 60% of the annual rainfall in many parts. The MAM forecast indicates a higher likelihood of below normal rainfall conditions over the eastern and western parts of the region.

Key Highlights from the Climate Outlook

Below-average rainfall is expected in much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, southern and western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania. There is an enhanced likelihood of below normal conditions for the cross-border areas of Ethiopia-Kenya-Somalia, north-eastern Ethiopia, southern Eritrea, and parts of south-western South Sudan.

Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected over most parts of Tanzania, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia.

Additionally, there is a high chance (over 70%) that the seasonal rainfall will exceed 200 mm in south-western Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
The temperature forecast indicates a higher likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with the highest probabilities (more than 75%) over Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, and northern Kenya.
An early to normal onset is expected in most parts of the region, except for localised areas in central Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and central Somalia, where a delayed start is likely.

The predicted climatic conditions for the MAM 2025 season are likely to have gender-differentiated impacts on the affected populations, with more adverse effects expected to be pronounced among women, children, older persons, and persons with disabilities. ICPAC urges all stakeholders to take proactive steps to reduce these impacts on the most vulnerable populations.

Dr. Abdi Fidar, the Officer-in-Charge at ICPAC, noted that “As the IGAD region faces increasing climate variability and extremes—droughts, floods, and rising temperatures—platforms like GHACOFs are essential for building a shared understanding of risks and fostering collaboration to mitigate their impacts.”

“The theme of this forum, Climate Services for Closing the Early Warning Gap Together, underscores the critical role of actionable, timely, and accurate climate information in bridging gaps in preparedness and response,” he added.

H.E Mr Motumma Mekasa, State Minister and Advisor to the Minister of Water and Energy for the Government of Ethiopia, highlighted IGAD’s key role in fostering regional integration and collaboration, stating: “We acknowledge and commend IGAD’s role as a regional institution promoting integration and collaboration among member states. In addition to its significant contributions to peace and security, IGAD’s work in coming up with initiatives geared towards mitigating and combating the effects of climate change is essential in making steps towards ensuring sustainable development and safeguarding livelihoods in this region. We look forward to IGAD’s support in championing the institutionalisation of climate services across the region.”

In line with the recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), ICPAC has implemented an objective seasonal forecast procedure to generate climate forecasts for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The MAM 2025 seasonal outlook was developed using January 2025 forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs).

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