Wednesday 11,Dec 2024 {HMC}  The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) will officially conclude its 17-year operation at the end of December, raising fears of a potential resurgence by the militant group al-Shabaab. The forthcoming African Union Stabilization and Support Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) is set to replace ATMIS, but analysts warn that the new force may struggle to counter al-Shabaab’s entrenched influence and growing strength.

According to Colin Robinson, a Lecturer at the Centre for Defence Leadership and Management at Cranfield Defence & Security in Shrivenham, the transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM could leave Somalia vulnerable to a significant resurgence of al-Shabaab.

ATMIS has played a role in Somalia’s fragile security framework, yet unfulfilled goals and persistent instability mar its legacy. The mission’s liberal peacebuilding approach, emphasizing democratic governance and institutional development, has often clashed with Somalia’s deeply entrenched clan dynamics and history of conflict. Al-Shabaab, exploiting these systemic weaknesses, has managed to sustain its shadow governance and attract local support.

Since its inception in 2007 as AMISOM, the AU mission has engaged in gruelling counterinsurgency battles, including the four-year urban warfare campaign in Mogadishu. Despite securing some key towns, the mission’s reach has been stretched thin across Somalia’s vast southern region. Isolated bases like Bulo Mareer have come under devastating attacks, highlighting vulnerabilities in ATMIS’s operational strategy.

Creating a unified Somali National Army (SNA) to replace foreign forces has been a longstanding goal. However, clan loyalties and political divisions have hindered progress, leaving the SNA as a patchwork of militias and foreign-trained brigades. Efforts by the U.S. and Turkey to develop elite units such as Danab and Gorgor have achieved some success, but these forces remain heavily dependent on external funding and expertise.

AUSSOM, expected to deploy 11,900 personnel, will inherit many of ATMIS’s challenges. The transition will see a modest reduction from ATMIS’s 12,626 troops, with Uganda continuing its leading role. Additionally, Somalia’s defence pact with Egypt may bring up to 5,000 Egyptian soldiers to the region. However, Egypt’s lacklustre counterinsurgency record raises questions about its effectiveness in this context.

Political discord within Somalia’s Federal Government and Federal Member States further complicates efforts to unify against al-Shabaab. Regional tensions between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam exacerbate these divisions, undermining the cohesive action needed to combat the insurgency.

Al-Shabaab’s ability to adapt and endure has kept it at the forefront of Somalia’s security crisis. Its taxation network and governance structures remain robust, allowing it to operate as a shadow state. Analysts warn that with ATMIS’s withdrawal, al-Shabaab could intensify efforts to seize urban areas, including Mogadishu, challenging the weakened government forces.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s declaration of “total war” against al-Shabaab in 2022 has intensified military campaigns, but the group’s unity and resolve often surpass that of its adversaries. Calls for negotiation with the insurgents persist among international donors, yet such talks remain unlikely under the current administration.

Somalia’s future hinges on resolving deep-seated political fractures and strengthening its security forces. Without significant reforms, AUSSOM’s limited resources may only delay a potential collapse of government-controlled areas. Robinson believes that a scenario where al-Shabaab dominates southern Somalia or forces international troops to retreat to fortified positions in Mogadishu is increasingly plausible, drawing grim parallels to Afghanistan and Iraq.

Wednesday 11,Dec 2024 {HMC} Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud arrived in Ankara on Monday night, leading a delegation to join talks mediated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Now, in their third round, the discussions aim to resolve escalating tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over a contentious agreement with Somaliland.

The Somali government has drawn a clear line: no direct engagement with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed unless Addis Ababa retracts its deal with Somaliland and acknowledges Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial unity.

The talks come at a critical juncture for Somalia, which views Ethiopia’s actions as an affront to its territorial integrity. President Mohamud’s delegation includes Defense Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur, intelligence chief Mahad Mohamed Salad, former Deputy Prime Minister Mahdi Guled, and Foreign Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi. Their presence underscores Mogadishu’s determination to defend its national interests.

“Somalia remains steadfast in its commitment to sovereignty and unity,” a Somali government official stated. “Any negotiations must respect these principles.”

Wednesday 11,Dec 2024 {HMC}  Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed are set to meet in Ankara on Tuesday for the third round of talks to resolve escalating tensions over Ethiopia’s controversial agreement with Somaliland.

This meeting will mark the first direct engagement between the two leaders since Addis Ababa announced a deal granting access to Somaliland’s Berbera Port in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence. Mogadishu has fiercely condemned the agreement, labelling it an illegal infringement on Somalia’s sovereignty. Ethiopia, however, maintains that the deal aligns with its strategic interests and does not violate Somalia’s territorial integrity.

The Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement has exacerbated already fragile relations between Ethiopia and Somalia. Somaliland, a self-governing territory that declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but lacks international recognition, has emerged as a critical flashpoint in the region. Somalia views Somaliland as an integral part of its territory and has sought to undermine any agreements that legitimize its independence bid.

Adding to the tensions, Somalia accused Ethiopia of deploying arms to the port city of Kismayo to stoke divisions between Mogadishu and the Jubaland administration. Ethiopian officials have yet to comment on these allegations, while Jubaland leaders have dismissed them as baseless.

The talks, hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, reflect Ankara’s deepening role as a mediator in the Horn of Africa, where regional disputes threaten stability. Ankara has hosted two prior rounds of talks, but progress has been limited. Turkish officials have emphasized the importance of finding a resolution that ensures regional stability.

Turkey’s growing influence in Somalia is evident in its extensive defence and economic agreements. Earlier this year, Ankara and Mogadishu finalized a naval agreement to secure Somali territorial waters and bolster its maritime security. Turkish energy exploration efforts along Somalia’s coastline further underline the depth of their bilateral ties.

For Ethiopia, Turkey remains a significant partner, having provided military support through drone sales that played a pivotal role in Ethiopia’s conflict with Tigray forces. These multifaceted relationships place Ankara in a unique position to mediate the ongoing tensions.

The stakes for this week’s talks extend beyond Somalia and Ethiopia. The Horn of Africa’s strategic location at the intersection of the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean amplifies the significance of regional disputes. Ethiopia’s growing ties with Somaliland have drawn criticism from Egypt, a long-standing rival over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, further complicating the regional landscape.

Analysts have noted that Somalia’s burgeoning relationship with Egypt and recent defence agreements with Tanzania signal a broader effort to counter Ethiopia’s influence.

While previous negotiations have stalled, the upcoming meeting could prove pivotal. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud firmly stated that any talks regarding sea access or commercial agreements with Ethiopia would remain on hold until Addis Ababa formally acknowledges Somalia’s sovereignty. Analysts suggest that Ethiopia may offer to withdraw from its Somaliland agreement in exchange for access to Somali ports closer to the Ethiopian border.

Wednesday 11,Dec 2024 {HMC} Somalia has opened its first women-only prison in Mogadishu, a groundbreaking step in justice reform aimed at addressing gender disparities in detention and safeguarding the rights of female detainees.

The facility, located in the Hamar Jajab district, is equipped to house women charged with offences such as domestic violence, homicide, and drug-related crimes. As Somalia’s first women-specific detention center, it ensures detainees receive humane treatment and gender-sensitive care, addressing long-standing gaps in the justice system.

Deputy Police Commander Brigadier General Osman Abdullahi Mohamed (Kanif) inaugurated the prison during a ceremony attended by senior police and government officials. He described the facility as a major step in delivering professional and gender-sensitive policing services, marking a new chapter for Somalia’s law enforcement.

The ceremony also included remarks by Hamar Jajab Police Commander Rahma Sandheer, who spearheaded the initiative. Sandheer emphasized the facility’s importance in building public trust in security forces, noting that humane detention practices can strengthen community relationships and support justice reform. She added that authorities envision the facility as a blueprint for future reforms to create a more equitable and humane approach to detention nationwide.

Source Hiiraan online