Talaado 18 June 2024 {HMC} According to the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2710 {2023}, ATMIS is mandated to withdraw 4,000 troops in the third phase of troop withdrawal and be replaced by Somali security forces.

On Sunday , the African Union’s (AU) senior envoy to Somalia reassured Somalis that the withdrawal of troops from the country will not lead to a “security vacuum.”

AU Special Representative for Somalia Mohamed El-Amine Souef said the pan-African body will not abandon Somalia even as the AU Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) prepares to withdraw an additional 4,000 troops by the end of June.

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“Even as ATMIS troops drawdown, we will ensure there is no security vacuum,” Souef said after a two-day visit to Jowhar, south-central Somalia, according to a statement issued in the Somali capital of Mogadishu on Saturday night.

He said the transition will be well coordinated between the federal member states (FMS), the Somali government, and international partners.

During the visit, Souef lauded the Burundian troops for their efforts in countering and degrading al-Shabab, urging them to remain vigilant and work closely with the Somali security forces and the local community.

The visit is part of the AU envoy’s tour of the FMS to assess the operational preparedness, welfare, and morale of troops as the African body prepares a follow-up mission after the exit of ATMIS.

“We came to assess the work of our contingent, and everybody we met spoke highly of our contingent, including the president, the civil society representatives, the elders, and the local authority officials. They mentioned our contingent’s commitment, experience, and willingness to support and assist in terms of civil-military cooperation and security,” Souef said.

According to the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2710 (2023), ATMIS is mandated to withdraw 4,000 troops in the third phase of troop withdrawal and be replaced by Somali security forces.

Souef praised the UN and ATMIS personnel stationed in Jowhar for their commitment and sacrifice to the peacebuilding process in Somalia.

He expressed confidence in Somalia’s recent election to the UN Security Council, its admission to the East African Community, and the lifting of the arms embargo as positive signs for the country’s future and the entire continent.

ATMIS withdrew 5,000 troops from Somalia and handed over 17 military bases to the Somali security forces during the first and second phases of the drawdown concluded in 2023.

Marius Ngendabanka, ATMIS deputy force Commander in charge of operations and plans, reiterated the AU mission’s commitment to strengthening peacebuilding efforts in the region and working with the Somali National Army to secure Hirshabelle State.

“We are here to help Somalia restore peace and stability, and we will continue working toward achieving this noble goal,” Ngendabanka said.

Talaado 18 June 2024 {HMC} Al-Shabab has reversed all Somali National Army gains made over the last two years and is now working with the Houthi militant group to expand its capabilities, according to senior U.S. defense officials.

“They are working with the Houthis,” said a senior U.S. defense official, who spoke to reporters on the condition of anonymity. “It’s a bit of a surprise. … It’s quite concerning.”

The official said that the Houthi militants in Yemen view this “nascent” collaboration as a means “to be taken more seriously” as they try to pose a threat to American and British vessels outside the Red Sea.

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The Houthis have attacked or threatened U.S. Navy and commercial vessels more than 190 times in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since Nov. 19, 2023, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh told reporters at the Pentagon on Monday. Two attacks on the Palauan-flagged, Ukrainian-owned and Polish-operated bulk cargo carrier M/V Verbena on Thursday left one crew member severely injured, and one crew member remains missing after an attack Wednesday on the Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned M/V Tutor.

“The Houthis claim to be acting on behalf of Palestinians in Gaza, and yet they are threatening the lives of those who have nothing to do with the conflict,” Singh said.

Guled Ahmed, a Horn of Africa scholar at the Middle East Institute, said the Houthis, with help from the Iranian government, aim to establish a new front in the Indian Ocean where al-Shabab can receive advanced missiles and drones. He said the Houthis have already sent three engineers to al-Shabab in southern Somalia to help build sophisticated weapons and bombs for the al-Qaida affiliate.

The United States has been trying to curb the flow of weapons into Somalia for years. In November 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions against eight individuals and one company involved in a yearslong effort to smuggle millions of dollars’ worth of weapons between Yemen and Somalia. That smuggling operation aimed to benefit Islamic State’s affiliate in Somalia, but officials say the operation was also helping to arm its al-Qaida-linked rival, al-Shabab, with weapons from Iran.

Al-Shabab expansion

According to senior U.S. defense officials, the Somali National Army’s central Somalia campaign had put al-Shabab “on the back foot” for the past two years.

“But what we’ve seen is [al-Shabab fighters] have reversed all of those gains over the last six months,” one of the officials said.

Ahmed said the Somali National Army has suffered from poor military strategy, inexperienced field commanders and corruption among leadership, including the theft of food rations, military equipment, weapons and ammunition to sell on the black market.

Al-Shabab is now back at high numbers of between 12,000 and 13,000 fighters because of strong financing and heavy recruitment efforts, following a diplomatic effort between Ethiopia and Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland to sign a memorandum of understanding earlier this year.

“They were able to use that to recruit many — who do not like Ethiopia — into al-Shabab ranks,” the senior U.S. official said.

Another senior U.S. defense official said the reversals by al-Shabab are a clear sign that some enabling support must remain once the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia {ATMIS} ends.

“They need all the help they can get to confront the security challenges that are in front of them,” the second senior defense official said. “We’re approaching a key milestone.”