Goobaha la isku fara saaray waxaa ka mid ah degaanada ku teedsan Webiga Jubba, sida Jiimay, Bangeeni iyo Bandar jadiid oo dhammaantood dhaca Gaddiga kale ee Webiga Jubba.
Howlgalkan ayaa al shabaab lagu gaarsiiyay qasaare lixaad leh iyadoo laga laayay 23 dagaalyahan oo isugu jira saraakiil iyo maleeshiyaad, iyadoo maxaabiis dhaawac ah iyo kuwa kalena gacanta looga dhigay sida ay sheegeen saraakiisha Jubbaland.
“Howlgalkan ayaana wali socdaa oo lagu baacsanayaa kooxaha nabadiidka ah” ayuu yiri sarkaal ka tirsan ciidamada howlgalkaas hogaaminaya.
Jimco -19-April-2024 {HMC} – Dagaal ayaa ka dhacay mid ka mid ah deegaannada lagu muransan yahay ee u dhaxeeya gobollada Tigray iyo Amxaarada ee waqooyiga dalka Itoobiya.
Waa rabshaddii ugu horreysay oo dhacda tan iyo markii heshiis nabadeed, ay kala saxiixdeen labada dhinac dabayaaqadii sanadkii 2022, heshiiskaas soo afjaray mid ka mid ah iskahorimaadyadii ugu xumaa ee dhawaanahaan ka dhacay Afrika.
Dagaalka ayaa xoogiisa waxa uu ka socdaa degmada Raya Alaama oo ay labada gobol kala sheeganayaan. Deegaankan ayaa hoos taga koonfurta gobolka Tigray ka hor inta uusan dagaalku dhicin sanadka 2020 balse waxa uu soo galay gacanta ciidamada Amxaarada.
Sida ay sheegayaan dadka deegaanka, iska hor imaadyada ayaa billowday sabtidii, waxayna socdeen maalmo kadibna ciidamada Tigrayga ayaa gudaha u galay magaalooyinka iyo tuulooyinka degmada.
Labada hoggaamiye ee Tigrayga iyo Amxaarada ayaa isla markiiba isweydaarsaday eedeymo ku saabsan cidda hurisay rabshadaha. Hadda, ma jiraan calaamado muujinaya in dagaalku qaboobay.
Maxaa keenay khilaafka?
Sheegashada dhuleed ee aagagga xuduudka u dhexeeya gobollada Tigrayga iyo Amxaarada ayaa jirtay muddo tobannaan sano ah.
Dhulka aan ka hadleyno waa aagga galbeedka Tigray, oo loo yaqaan Wolkayit kana tirsan gobolka Axmaarada, iyo Koonfurta Tigray gaarahaan deegaanka Raya oo xadka ku yaalla.
Balse deegaannadaan ayaa gacanta ugu jiray maamulladii Tigray tan iyo horraantii 1990-meeyadii, markii Itoobiya ay hirgelisay qaab-dhismeedka federaalka ku saleysan,iyadoo xilligaas la sameeyay labada gobo lee hadda dirirtu dhexmarayso.
Mas’uuliyiinta Amxaarada ayaa ku andacoonaya in deegaanadaas ay iyagu leeyihiin waxayna eeda dusha uga tuureen kooxda TPLF, oo ah koox siyaasadeed oo ka talinaysay gobolkaas ilaa dabayaaqadii 2010-kii.
Sannadkii 2020-kii, markii uu dagaal ku dhex maray dawladda federaalka iyo ciidamada Tigrayga, ciidamada Amxaarada ayaa ka barbar dagaalamayey ciidanka federaalka. Ciidamada Amxaarada ayaa la wareegay deegaanadii lagu muransanaa waxayna ka sameysteen dhismayaal maamul.
Ka dib laba sano oo dagaallo lagu hoobtay ay dhaceen, heshiis nabadeed ayaa lagu gaaray dalka Koonfur Afrika bishii Noofambar 2022-kii.
Inkastoo heshiiskaasi la gaaray haddana arrinta ku saabsan cidda maamulaysa deegaannada lagu muransan yahay ayaa ahayd mid aan xal loo helin.
Kooxaha xuquuqul insaanka ayaa ku eedeeyay ciidamada Amxaarada xad-gudubyo waaweyn oo ay ka mid yihiin in ay si xoog ah u barakiciyeen boqolaal kun oo qawmiyadda Tigrayga ka tirsan gaar ahaan galbeedka Tigray.
Jawaabta dowladda
Maamulka magaalada Addis Ababa ee xarunta federaalka ayaan weli ka hadlin iska horimaadyadan u dambeeyay.
Balse waxa ay dhawaan shaaciyeen in la qorsheynayo in ciidamadu ay sii maamulaan deegaanadaasi inta xal laga gaarayo. Horey waxay u sheegeen in ay soo celin doonaan dadka Tigrayga ah ee barakacay, aftina laga qaadi doono.
Todobaadkan, General Tadesse Werede, oo taliye u ahaa ciidamada Tigrayga, haddana ah ku xigeenka madaxa maamulka ku meel gaarka ah ee Tigray, ayaa u sheegay wariyaasha gudaha in maamulkiisu uu gaaray heshiis lagu kala dirayo hay’adaha dawladda ee degaannada lagu muransan yahay.
Dowladda Federaalka ma aysan xaqiijin mana beenin hadalkiisa.
Arbacadii shalay, maamulka gobolka Amxaarada iyo laanta xisbiga talada haya ee gobolka, ee ra’iisul Wasaare Abiy Axmed, ayaa soo saaray bayaan si adag u qoran oo ay ku eedeeyeen ciidamada Tigrayga inay “si buuxda u jebiyeen” heshiiskii nabadeed ee hore loo gaaray isla markaana ay duullaan qaadeen.
Dhiniciisa, madaxa maamulka ku meel gaarka ah ee Tigray, Getachew Reda, ayaa ku tilmaamay in rabshadahaan ay ka dambeyaan dad “cadow ku ah nabadda”.
Maxaa xiga?
Isku dhacyada Itoobiya ayaa ah kuwo aan la saadaalin karin halka ay ku dambeyn doonaan.
Sannad iyo bar ka dib markii heshiis nabadeed la gaaray, xaalka dalka labaad ee ugu dadka badan Afrika, wuxuu weli u muuqdaa mid nabaddiisu aaney cago badan ku taagneyn.
In kasta oo ay xasillooni yari ka jirto gobolka Tigray ee dagaalladu naafeeyeen, haddana rabshadaha soo cusboonaaday ayaa loo arkaa kuwo meesha ka saari kara nabadda aan xooganeyn.
Gobolka Amxaarada ayaa maleeshiyaadka deegaanku waxa ay kula dagaalamayeen ciidanka dowladda tan iyo bishii Agoosto, waxaana guud ahaan gobolku uu kujiro xaalad deg deg ah oo intiisa badan internedka ayaa xitaa ka maqan.
Waxaa jirta cabsi laga qabo in dagaaladii ugu dambeeyay ee ay la galeen ciidamada Tigrayga ay dhiiri galin karaan dhaq-dhaqaaqyada maleeshiyaadka.
Dagaallada horey uga dhacay gobollada Tigray iyo Amxaarada ayaa waxaa ku dhintay dad badan malaayiinna way ku barakaceen, iyadoo hay’adaha xquuqul insaankuna xaaladda ku tilmaameen mid halis ah oo su’aal gelinrta mustaqbalka dadka rayidka ah.
Jimco -19-April-2024 {HMC} Markii Golaha Wasiirada Soomaaliya ay ansixiyeen heshiiska iskaashiga militari ee lala galay Imaaraadka Carabta bishii February 2023, caro xooggan ayaa ka dillaacday Muqdisho.
Xildhibaanada qaar ayaa shaaciyey in heshiiska uu ka hor-imanayo madax-banaanida iyo qarannimada Soomaaliya.
Heshiiska waxaa ku jiray qodobo muhiim u ah Soomaaliya, aadna ay ugu baahan tahay sida tababarka ciidamada, mushahar siintooda iyo qodobo kale.
Golaha Wasiirada ayaa deg deg u ansixiyey heshiiska, waxaana Imaaraadka Carabta ay Muqdisho kusoo celiyeen qaar ka mid ah ciidamada Soomaaliya ee lagu tababarayey Uganda, ayaga oo bixinaya mushaharkooda, si ay u sugaan amniga caasimadda.
Bil kadib militariga Imaaraadka ayaa billaabay inay saldhig cusub oo ay ayaga maamulaan ka dhisaan maamulka Jubaland.
Ayada oo ay jiraan arrimahan, xildhibaanada qaar ayaa rumeysan in heshiiska uu xadkiisa ka baxay.
Haddaba maxay yihiin qodobada halista loo arkay ee ku jira heshiiska?
Heshiiska oo ay aragtay Warbaahinta Qaar, ayaa Imaaraadka Carabta sharciyad u siinaya “inay howlgallo militari iyo amni, oo ay ku jiraan dhul, bad iyo cir ka fulin karaan Soomaaliya, haddii ay u arkaan kuwa loo baahan yahay, si ay u ciribtiraan unugyada argagixisada.
Heshiiska ayaa sidoo kale Abu Dhabi “u ogolaanaya inay isticmaasho” dhulka Soomaaliya.
Imaaraadku “waxa uu xaq u leeyahay in uu isticmaalo dekedaha dhulka, dekedaha badda iyo garoomada diyaaradaha ee Jamhuuriyadda Federaalka Soomaaliya,” kana samaysto saldhigyo ciidan iyo tababaro si uu hawlihiisa u sii wato, ayaa ku qoran heshiiska.
Qodobka ugu culus, muranka badanna dhaliyey ayaa si kastaba ah, in heshiiska uu xasaanad buuxda siinayo militariga Imaaraadka, taasi oo dad badan ka caraysiisay.
“Dhammaan dadka ku hoos shaqeeya heshiiskan waa in la siiyaa ilaalin iyo xasaanad ka dhan ah dacwad kasta oo caalami, sharci ama maamul ah, gudaha Soomaaliya,” ayaa lagu qoray heshiiska.
Waxa uu intaas ku darayaa “Shaqsiyaadka ku hoos shaqynaya heshiiskan laguma soo oogi karo hab-raac heer qaran ama caalami ah ama dacwad ama xukun ku dabaqid ayaga ka dhan ah,” gudaha Soomaaliya inta lagu guda jiro dhaqan-gelinta heshiiska.
Heshiiska ayan weli la horgeyn baarlamanka, waxaana hadda xog la helayo ay sheegeyaan in dowladda madaxweyne Xasan Sheekh aysan sidaas damacsaneyn.
Waxaa sidoo kale jirta in Soomaaliya ay heshiis militari oo kale oo kan la mid ah ay la gashay Turkiga, kaasi oo durba la dhaqan-geliyey kadib markii ay meel mariyeen golaha wasiirada, baarlamanka, islamarkaana uu saxiixay madaxweynaha.
Xiriirka Muqdisho iyo Abu Dhabi ayaa hadda sii xumaanaya, waxayna u muuqataa inay labada dhinac kala tagayaan.
Saraakiisha Imaaraatka Carabta ayaa horaantii bishan u sheegay dowladda federaalka in ay joojinayaan lacag dhan 5 milyan oo dollar oo ay ku taageeri jireen qaar ka mid ah ciidamada Milatariga Soomaaliya.
Imaaraadku waxay joojiyeen lacagihii ay siin jireen shan guuto oo ku sugan meelo ka baxsan Muqdisho, ayaga oo hadda bixiya kaliya taageerada dhaqaale ee laba guuto oo xasilinaya caasimadda iyo hal guuto gaar ah, oo loo xil saaray ilaalinta xarumaha muhiimka ah ee dowladda.
Jimco -19-April-2024 {HMC} WASHINGTON — Israa’iil ayaa weerar gantaal ah waabarigii hore ee Jimacaha maanta ah ka fulisay gudaha Iran, sida ay sheegtay warbaahinta Maraykanka, iyada oo soo xiganaysa saraakiil Maraykan ah oo aan la magacaabin.
Warbixinnada shabakadaha ABC, CBS iyo NPR ma aysan bixin faahfaahin dheeraad ah oo ku saabsan goobta ama bartilmaameedka gantaalaha Israa’iil.
Afhayeen u hadlay militariga Israa’iil ayaa sheegay in uusan wax hadal ah “xilligan” ka bixin karin wararka warbaahinta Mareykanka, saacad kadib markii ay soo baxeen wararka.
Wakaalladda Wararka Iiraan ee IRNA ayaa sheegtay in difaaca cirka ee jamhuuriyadda Islaamiga ah laga hawl galiyay hawada sare ee dhowr gobol.
IRNA iyo wakaaladda wararka dowladda ee Fars, oo xiriir la leh ilaalada kacaanka Islaamiga ah ee Iran, ayaa soo xigatay ilo wareed aan la magacaabin, iyagoo sheegay in qarax uu ka dhacay gobolka Isfahan ee bartamaha Iran.
Israa’iil ayaa uga digtay Iran inay ka aargoosan doonto duullaan aan horay loo arag oo Iran ay ku qaadday dhulka Israa’iil Axaddii hore.
Jimco -19-April-2024 {HMC} Dacwad oogayaasha Jarmalka ayaa sheegay in ay ku xireen labo nin magaalada Bavaria, kuwaas oo looga shakin san yahay in ay u basaasayeen sirdoonka Ruushka, isla markaana ay qorshaynayeen weerarro laga gaysto saldhigyo milatari.
Dacwad oogaha guud ee dalka Jarmalka ayaa sheegay in mid kamid ah labada nin ee la qabtay uu ururinyay warbixinno iyo sawirro goobbaha milatari ee suurtagalka ah in la bartilmaameedsado, waxana ku jira saldhiyadda xooggaga Maraykanka ee jooga Jarmalka, iyadoo lala xiriirinayo taageerada Ukraine.
Labada nin ee la qabtay ayaa wata labo jinsiyadood oo kala ah Jarmal iyo Ruush; haddii lagu helo dambi waxa ay mudan karaan xabsi toban sanno ah.
Safaardda Ruushka ee Jarlmalka ayaa sheegtay in aan lagu wargalin raggan.
Jimco -19-April-2024 {HMC} NAIROBI — Madaxweynaha dalka Kenya William Ruto ayaa sheegay in taliyihii ciidamada milateriga ee dalkaasi iyo sagaal qof oo kale inay ku dhinteen shil diyaaradeed oo dhacay Khamiistii.
Taliye, General Francis Ogolla ayaa geeriyooday ka dib markii ay burburtay diyaarad nooca sida qumaatiga u kaca ah, oo ay saarnaayeen 11 qof.
Waxaana shilkaas diyaaradeed ka badbaaday laba qof oo haatan lagu dabiibayo cusbitaalada Kenya.
Diyaaraddan Helicopter-ka ah ayaa burburtay daqiiqado yar ka dib markii ay kacday, waxaana la arkayey dab iyo qiiq badan oo hadheeyey goobta shilku ka dhacay oo ku taalla agagaarka Rift Valley, sida ay baahisay warbaahinta gudaha ee dalkaasi.
Madaxweyne Ruto oo warbaahinta la hadlay ayaa dhacdadan ku tilmaamay inay tahay masiibo qaran.
“Dalkeena hooyo wuxuu maanta waayey mid ka mida taliyayaashii ugu wanaagsanaa” sidaas waxaa sheegay madaxweynaha.
Jimco -19-April-2024 {HMC} Maraykanka ayaa Khamiistii codka diidmada qayaxan u isticmaalay qaraar ay soo diyaarisay Qaramada Midoobay, kaas oo jidka u xaadhaya in xubinimo buuxda la siiyo dawlad ay leeyihiin Falastiiniyiintu.
Qaraarkan oo la horgeeyey golaha ammaanka ee Qaramada Midoobay, waxaa taageeray 12 xubnood, waxaa ka aamusay laba xubnood halka Maraykankuna uu ka soo horjeestay.
Maraykanka iyo Ingiriiska ayaa dhinaca kale ku dhawaaqay inay cunaqabatayno cusub ku soo rogayaan Iran.
Tallaabadan ayaa ku soo beegmaysa, iyada oo hoggaamiyayaasha Midawga Yurub oo ku shirsan Brussels ay wacad ku mareen inay kordhinayaan cunaqabataynada ay saarayaan Iraan, iyaga oo bartilmaameedsanaya nidaamka diyaaradaha aan duuliyaha lahayn iyo gantaallada ay geeyaan meelaha ay ka hawlgalaan ururada gacansaarka la leh sida Gaza, Yemen iyo Lubnaan.
Cunaqabataynta Maraykanka ayaa bartilmaameedsanaysa shakhsiyaadka iyo shirkadaha soo saara mishiinada ay isticmaalaan diyaaradaha yaryari iyo weliba dhinacyada soo saara birta loo adeegsado.
Friday -19-April-2024 {HMC} In the heart of the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia, a never-ending flashpoint of consternation, once again stands on the brink of a catastrophic descent into chaos. The spectre of Yugoslavia’s tragic unravelling looms large over this ancient land (delete “ancient” because it builds into the myth of a grand old Ethiopia narrative), as ethnic tensions reach a fever pitch and the very fabric of the nation threatens to tear apart.
Over the past year, internal conflicts have raged across Ethiopia, ripping apart communities and leaving a trail of untold devastation in their wake. At the forefront of this turmoil is the rise of ethnic militias, such as the very active FANO militia in the Amhara region. These armed groups, fueled by age-old ethnic grievances and historical animosities, have capitalised on the seemingly ever-widening vacuum of power and unleashed a wave of violence that threatens to engulf the entire country.
In the largest federal region of Oromia, the most populous heartland, the situation has deteriorated rapidly from bad to critical. The loss of 18 out of 21 provinces to various armed factions has plunged the region into chaos, with the two main militias Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) as well as the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) vying for control over the government and the many civilians caught in between. The once vibrant cities that lay on the road to Addis Ababa now echo with the sounds of gunfire and despair besieged by gunmen who have all but imposed a blockade on the capital, as ordinary Ethiopians cower in fear of what tomorrow may bring.
At the centre of this maelstrom of chaos and despair stands Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali, whose weak and incompetent leadership has only served to exacerbate the nation’s woes. Far from being a unifying figure, Abiy has proven himself to be little more than a vestige of vested interests, incapable of rising above the petty squabbles of ethnic politics. His narrow-minded antics and inability to grasp the gravity of the situation have left Ethiopia adrift, with no clear direction or purpose.
Ethiopia’s leaders have a history of stepping down during tough times, but current leader Abiy Ahmed remains in power despite the country’s deteriorating security and near-collapse.
Abiy Ahmed, 47, came to power in April 2018 after his predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn, resigned after more than three years of protest from the Amhara and Oromo ethnic groups, which were demanding political freedom and good governance. Abiy Ahmed is a member of the Oromo ethnic group, the majority in Ethiopia. This community has long felt marginalized, and his appointment, at the time was seen as a bridge to mend the growing rift among ethnic groups in the country.
Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad
On May 21, 1991, Ethiopia’s then-president Mengistu Haile Mariam resigned and fled the country, ending his 14-year rule of the Horn of Africa nation. Mengistu resigned just two days after rebel groups led by Meles Zenawi captured two strategic towns, cutting the capital, Addis Ababa, to much of the country. Zenawi became president from 1991 to 1995 and was the second prime minister of Ethiopia until he died in 2012.
These two resignations show how they saved Ethiopia from collapse and steered the country to relative peace and normalcy, even though Ethiopian leaders, typically have
a history of ruling their population with an iron fist and deploying brute force against those who opposed them.
A few months after his appointment, he launched reforms, releasing political prisoners, appointing more women as ministers, and signing a peace deal with Eritrea after decades of conflict. This led to Abiy being awarded what many have to classify as a premature and poorly aged Nobel Peace Prize in 2019.
In November 2020, just a mere 390 days after winning the Nobel Peace Prize for a historic peace agreement with Eritrea, the Tigray People’s Liberation Movement (TPLF) attacked the largest army base (Northern Command) in the Tigray region forcing Abiy Ahmed to respond with a military operation to restore security. The immediate former regime of TPLF which itself brutally ran Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 miscalculated
their chances and went into a costly war. Their overconfidence was in part due to the nudging by their many links & ‘friends’ in the West, primarily the United States of America, over their 3 decades in power coupled with the pilfering of the national coffers which they eventually used as a formidable war chest.
As part of TPLF’s continued miscalculation, it expanded the war into other regions in Ethiopia, namely the Amhara and the Afar regions, and even launched over 100 rockets into the neighbouring country, Eritrea, in an effort to drag Eritrea into the conflict. This brutal civil war in the north of the country killed at least 600,000 people according to conservative estimates while 1.8 million more were displaced, according to the United Nations.
The Ethiopian government eventually signed a peace agreement with TPLF which was forced to sue for peace as they had all but been defeated, this peace process came to be known as the Pretoria agreement, ending the two-year-old conflict.
Experts argue that the TPLF was nudged to sign this “peace agreement” in an effort to avoid its total annihilation. Some also say that Abiy’s capitulation to the whims of outside influence, namely Mike Hammer of the United States, who was seemingly more interested in saving TPLF than finding a lasting solution to the war, is what led to the current catastrophic situation.
As the peace agreement was holding up in the north, another rebellion quickly emerged in the Amhara region. The Amhara fought alongside the ENDF in the Tigray region but this alliance quickly collapsed after clear signs of betrayal by Abiy began to emerge immediately after the signing of the peace deal with the TPLF. The Amhara had felt that the “disarming” clause of the peace agreement was being unfairly applied to disarm them while leaving others, namely the TPLF, fully armed. Relations between Abiy and Amhara worsened, and the government immediately lost close to 75 percent of the Amhara territory to regional forces and militias.
Compounding these internal fissures is the resurgence of the TPLF rebel group, which has reneged on the terms of the fragile peace agreement brokered in Pretoria. With their threats of secession looming large, the TPLF’s defiance threatens to reignite the flames of civil war that nearly consumed the whole country. The wounds of that conflict are still fresh, and the prospect of a return to such bloodshed is a nightmare that few dare to contemplate.
Abiy is also facing the biggest rebellion from ‘his’ own Oromia region as the Ethiopian government is simultaneously dealing with an armed uprising in three powerful regions: Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray, which increasingly says it would secede from the rest of the country.
In these rounds of conflicts since November 2020, it’s estimated to have taken the lives of more than 1.5 million people. According to a recent study conducted by Addis Ababa University, more than 5,000 (five thousand) conflicts were recorded in the last five years, resulting in the loss of 1.5 million lives.
When Abiy Ahmed is not fighting the most populous region and ethnic groups, his government is overseeing and supporting the inter-communal fighting between Afar and Somalis living in Ethiopia.
Indeed, Abiy’s misguided policies have only served to fan the flames of ethnic conflict. His latest decision to deploy federal forces to intervene in the dispute between the Afar and Somali in the Sitti province has only served to further incense violence and deepen divisions. By taking sides in these age-old disputes, Abiy, once again has effectively alienated large swathes of the population and sown the seeds of further discord. These 2 regions were the only regions with relative calm among all of the Ethiopian regions.
Ethiopia’s Somali region has accused Afar militias of massacring hundreds where the two communities fight over a long-running regional dispute, adding broader tensions and conflict in the horn of the African nation. Somalis accuse the federal government of being the encouraging hand supporting the expansionist Afar to their land. The dispute between these two ethnic groups was hugely felt by the Somali Issa clan, which lives along the border between Afar and Ethiopia’s Somali region. The Issa want to be part of the Somali region of Ethiopia while their ancestral land has been included within the Afar regional boundary.
In 2014, the Afar and Somali regional governments agreed to give a special status known as ‘Kebele’ for the disputed areas along its borders, but they have yet to resolve their differences. The Kebeles are predominantly inhabited by the aforementioned Issa clan. The land sits along the highway between Addis Ababa, Djibouti, and the Assab port in Eritrea. Some observers point to the continued fighting along that corridor as a long-term strategy of the regime to displace Somalis and use the Afar to take control of Djibouti and eventually, Ethiopia gets access to the Red Sea. Such is the unmitigated thought among Abiy’s regime.
As if to compound all of this, Ethiopia’s economic landscape has also been marred by significant challenges, with recent years witnessing mounting debts and fiscal strain. Amidst this backdrop, Ethiopia defaulted on many loans which has strenuously added to its economic woes, signaling a critical juncture for the nation’s financial stability.
Factors such as insufficient revenue generation, the COVID-19 pandemic’s aftershock and its impact on key sectors like tourism and exports have been cited, although these may very well make sense in explaining the country’s inability to meet its debt obligations, it also spends a hefty budget on defence, no need to ask defence against whom as the government is so concerned for its own survival that it has to
defend itself from its very own citizens. The recent default on loans not only underscores Ethiopia’s immediate financial difficulties but also highlights broader systemic issues requiring urgent attention to navigate the country towards sustainable economic recovery and growth.
Many people in the Horn of Africa are amazed by the United States’ continuous support for the Ethiopian regime under Abiy Ahmed even amidst his escalating violence and instability, this reflects a complex geopolitical calculus. Despite Abiy’s administration overseeing the largest surge in violence, including ethnic clashes and human rights abuses, the U.S. strangely supports Ethiopia as the ‘crucial ally’ in the strategically vital Horn of Africa region. However, it is open for all to see that the
U.S. support for Abiy Ahmed’s regime only seeks to exacerbate tensions and prolong conflicts, ultimately undermining long-term stability in the region.
Abiy Ahmed, on January 1st 2024, signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway region of Somaliland to build a military base and give it access to the sea in exchange for recognition. Somaliland is internationally recognized as part of Somalia; Abiy Ahmed’s promise of recognition directly violates the African Union’s charter which incidentally is headquartered in Addis Ababa. Although this move was always bound to backfire badly, the resulting mass public condemnation of Ethiopia by local, regional and international bodies on the respect for Somalia’s territorial integrity & political independence was something that Ethiopia could have avoided if Abiy Ahmed had any foresight devoid of immature political expediency.
The January agreement, signed in Addis Ababa between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland separatist figurehead Muse Bihi, has reasonably angered Mogadishu, which sees it as direct interference with its sovereignty and territory. The agreement has raised tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia. Somalia’s president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has till today refused to meet and discuss any issue with Ethiopia until it backtracks from the deal it signed with Hargeisa.
Ethiopia’s unbridled appetite for a port is not going away, but it was his famous “We must get a seaport even if we have to use force” that made Djibouti, Somalia and Eritrea wary of the madman Abiy Ahmed.
Abiy Ahmed is not afraid to anger his neighbours. He was at loggerheads with Kenya over the presence of Tigray rebel group leaders, though Nairobi was trying to help ease the tension and conflict between him and the Tigray leadership. Kenya does not like his craze for Orommuma expansionism either; basically, Abiy has, in the past, expressed support for Oromo nationalism which lays claim to parts of Kenya.
Ethiopia is locked in a land dispute with Sudan over al-Fashaga, a fertile borderland. Sudan, like Egypt, is not happy with Ethiopia over the construction and filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), fearing the dam will reduce the Nile water that both countries heavily rely on for agriculture and other uses. Due to these fears, Abiy’s Chief of General Staff has accused Egypt and Sudan are arming elements in the regions of Gambella & Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples.
As the drums of war grow louder and the shadows of Yugoslavia’s tragic demise loom ever larger, the people of Ethiopia find themselves standing at a crossroads. The path ahead is fraught with danger and uncertainty, with the spectre of ethnic conflagration
casting a dark shadow over the nation’s future. Yet, amidst the chaos and despair, there remains a glimmer of hope – a hope that the people of Ethiopia will rise above their differences and forge a new path towards peace and reconciliation.
But time is running out, and the stakes could not be higher. Unless urgent action is taken to address the root causes of Ethiopia’s internal conflicts and to heal the wounds of the past, the nation risks being torn apart by forces beyond its control. The world must not stand idly by as Ethiopia hurtles towards the abyss – for the consequences of failure are too dire to contemplate.
Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad is a research scholar who serves as the Founder and Executive Director at the Afro-Asia Institute for Strategic Studies.
Thursday -18-April-2024 {HMC} Burkina Faso’s military junta has expelled three French diplomats for “subversive activities,” according to a government statement Thursday.
The diplomats, two of whom are political advisers, were given 48 hours to leave and no additional details were shared about the alleged subversive activities.
The French foreign ministry responded in a statement, saying it rejects the “unfounded accusations made by the Burkina Faso authorities against our staff.”
Burkina Faso’s relationship with its former colonizer has steadily deteriorated since junta leaders severed military ties with Paris in 2023, ousting hundreds of French troops within a month.
More than 60 years after Burkina Faso’s independence, French remains an official language and France has maintained strong economic and humanitarian aid ties with its former colony. As the Islamic extremist insurgency has deepened, however, anti-French sentiment has spiked due in part to the unabating violence.
Other Western nations are seeing ties with Burkina Faso diminish if they criticize the military government. The junta is instead aligning itself with countries like Mali and Niger, also led by military juntas, and moving to improve ties with Russia and China.
Thursday -18-April-2024 {HMC} Nigeria has been Africa’s largest or second-largest oil exporter for years, but relies heavily on imports to meet local energy needs. The government is trying to change that, saying the country’s four moribund oil refineries will be revived and put back in operation.
This week, authorities also announced a new policy that oil producers must sell a share of their crude oil to local refiners before they are permitted to export crude.
Nigeria’s petroleum regulatory commission announced the new Domestic Crude Oil Supply Obligation (DCSO) during a meeting with industry players. It’s part of an amendment to Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Act of 2021.
Under the policy, Nigerian oil producers are allowed to export crude only after meeting their supply obligations to local refiners.
The measure will take effect in the second half of the year, but it does not specify what quantity of crude must be supplied to local refineries.
Authorities said the objectives of the guideline are to bolster Nigeria’s refining capacity, improve the oil industry and earn foreign exchange.
Public affairs analyst Jaye Gaskiya said it was the right move. “In the current situation globally, this is actually going to turn out much more beneficial to both the producers and refiners in the country,” Gaskiya said. “Essentially this is designed to ease the problem of supply to the local refineries so that they don’t become redundant. The second thing is that it is also designed in such a manner to ease the pressure on the naira,” which is the currency of Nigeria.
According to the regulations, payments for crude to domestic refiners can be made in dollars, naira or a combination of both.
Nigeria relies heavily on imports to meet the population’s energy needs. Analysts say refining crude oil locally could reverse this trend.
But oil and gas analyst Toyin Akinosho said he had concerns.
“In principle, I do not have a problem with it, but we need to be very careful about the foreign exchange implications and also the volumes that are going out,” he said. “My challenge has always been, if you are overzealous about certain regulations, you can burn your fingers. In an era of very low forex [currency trading] and this being the major avenue for inflow into the country, you have to find a way of managing it.”
The new measure includes penalties for oil producers who divert crude oil or refiners who fail to meet payment obligations.
But Gaskiya said there were some loose strings to the rule.
“The regulation says it is on the basis of willing buyer and willing seller, and that’s quite tricky,” Gaskiya said. “A situation where you have the suppliers, for instance, being unwilling, what are you then going to do as the regulator? So those are the things that the regulator needs to be on the lookout for.”
The refineries in Nigeria, including the latest one built by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, will have a combined processing capacity of 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day when rehabilitated.
While experts have doubts the new guidelines will be effective, authorities are optimistic Nigeria is getting closer to its goal of having a self-sufficient energy sector.
