Friday 12 April , 2024 {HMC} A sudden hike in electricity rates in Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria, has sparked a backlash.

Until now, Jude Okafor has spent an average $25 on electricity to run a frozen fish and meat business that he started in 2021. But since last week, when the government announced a rate hike of nearly 300 percent for electricity, Okafor says running his business has been tough.

“There is no escape. Light has gone high, fuel has gone high. And for a businessman, there’s no way we can cope with that,” Okafor said. “If there’s no light or fuel to ice our fish, what are we going to do? Our business is running down. This is [a] first-class act of wickedness.”

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) announced the price change last Wednesday and said only its bigger power consumers, about 15 percent overall, would be affected by the subsidy cut.

Authorities said consumers in that category enjoy up to 20 hours of electricity a day and that the rate hike was only fair to customers who receive fewer hours of light.

The decision to remove electricity subsidies is part of President Bola Tinubu’s reform drives to ease pressure on the economy.

Authorities argue that state-controlled electricity rates are too low to attract new investors or allow distribution firms to recover their costs, leaving the sector with huge debts.

Economic analyst Ogho Okiti says the government’s move is a good one.

“The government is not able to pay those subsidies on time, and because they’re not able to [pay] them on time, gas companies are withdrawing their gas supplies,” Okiti said. “The timing is right. I think the government had waited till April to do this because they expect power supply to improve from now because of [the] rainy season.”

But the decision is being criticized by many, including businesses, manufacturers and workers’ unions.

This week, the Abuja chapter of the Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines, and Agriculture, or NACCIMA, said the decision would threaten the survival of many thousands of businesses already struggling to cope with soaring inflation.

“First of all, the timing is wrong,” said Dele Oye, national president of the NACCIMA. “We all know that electricity is underpriced, but to some extent, there must be some level of subsidy. There’s nowhere in the world where there’s no subsidy. We cannot compete if we have to pay everything at market value when we don’t see market value service from the government. We do our roads. We do our security as investors.”

Nigeria last revised electricity rates four years ago. Authorities say the country could save up to $2.6 billion from the subsidy removal.

But a similar reform applied on petrol last year worsened a cost-of-living crisis for many Nigerians after the annual rate of inflation rose to more than 30 percent — its highest level in three decades.

Critics will be watching to see how this newest subsidy removal unfolds.

SOURCE VOA

Friday 12 April , 2024 {HMC} Mali’s ruling junta has issued a decree suspending all political activities until further notice, saying it needs to preserve public order, a move that follows last year’s decision to call off elections indefinitely.

Junta spokesman Abdoulaye Maiga read out the statement on state television late Wednesday evening, while the country was celebrating Eid al-Fitr, the holiday marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan in which observant Muslims fast from dawn until dusk.

Mali has experienced two coups since 2020, amid a wave of political instability that has swept across West and Central Africa. The country has battled a worsening insurgency by jihadi groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State group for over a decade.

Col. Assimi Goita, who took charge after a second coup in 2021, promised to return the country to democracy in early 2024. But in September, the junta canceled elections scheduled for February 2024 indefinitely, citing the need for further technical preparations.

Analysts said the move was likely a backlash against political figures, civil society and students who have expressed frustration with the junta’s repeated moves to delay the nation’s transition back to democratic rule.

“Recent weeks saw mounting pressure by political parties and figures,” Rida Lyammouri of the Policy Center for the New South, a Morocco-based think tank, told The Associated Press. “For the first time, the public and politicians have publicly criticized junta leaders and accused them of a lack of seriousness.”

Mali previously relied on French troops to help push back the insurgents. Amid growing frustration over the lack of progress, the ruling junta ordered French troops out and turned to Russian contractors instead for security support. The last French forces departed in August 2022 after almost a decade of operations in Mali.

SOURCE VOA

Friday 12 April , 2024 {HMC} Tensions between Israel and Turkey over the war in Gaza are at risk of escalating into an all-out trade war, threatening a bilateral economic relationship that has long been nurtured even as the countries bicker over political issues.

On Tuesday, Turkey’s Trade Ministry announced new restrictions on exporting 54 product groups, including aluminum, steel, several construction products, jet fuel and chemical fertilizers, to Israel.

Some experts think Ankara has historically separated political problems from economic relations in its stance on Israel, but recent announcements show a policy shift.

“Turkey’s decision was negatively received in Israel as the two countries are important trade partners, and until now, Ankara has put a barrier between tensions on the political level and trade relations,” Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Israel, told VOA.

The restrictions came a day after Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Israel had prevented Turkey from airdropping aid to Gaza and vowed to take measures against Israel until there was a cease-fire and permanent flow of aid into the territory. Israel has not responded to Fidan’s statement.

Alan Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, said he saw Turkey’s export restrictions as a response to domestic politics.

“I would find it hard to believe that Turkey could seriously think that Israel would approve of allowing Turkey to participate in airdrops. When there’s an airdrop, Israel does not review what is in the airdrop, so it is only countries that they would really trust from a security standpoint that they would give clearance to. At least, I believe that’s the case,” Makovsky said.

“If Turkey did apply, I am sure they knew when they applied that there was no way Israel would approve it,” he said. “I suspect they used that as a cover for what is really a domestic political decision.”

Makovsky was referring to the success of the Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP) in last month’s local elections in Turkey. YRP, which came third, was vocal in criticizing Erdogan for not cutting off trade with Israel during the campaign.

Trade with Israel

In a post on X, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said, “We will respond accordingly and prepare an extended list of additional products that Israel will prevent Turkey from exporting.”

Makovsky said that trade between Israel and Turkey in recent years has become “increasingly unbalanced in Turkey’s favor.”

The two countries signed a free-trade agreement in 1996. According to the state-run Turkish Statistical Institute, Turkey’s exports to Israel were worth $5.4 billion in 2023, while Israel’s exports to Turkey were worth $1.6 billion the same year.

“In terms of replacing materials, the burden is going to be greater on Israel, but there could be economic problems for Turkey, obviously, if these sales do not go through,” Makovsky said.

“I also wonder what message it sends to international investors if Turkey suddenly prevents private contracts from being carried out for political reasons. That may not be a great thing for the Turkish economy,” he said.

Some experts said the restrictions would broadly affect Israel’s construction sector.

“Regarding some materials, such as cement, Israel is highly dependent on imports from Turkey. Israel can find alternatives, but they will cost more, and it may take time till it finds the relevant substitutes,” INSS’s Lindenstrauss told VOA.

According to the Israel Builders Association, Israel imports around 70% of its iron construction materials and about a third of its cement needs from Turkey. Turkey has also been one of the leading steel providers to Israel.

US involvement

Israeli Foreign Minister Katz said he asked “Israel’s friends in the U.S. Congress to examine Turkish violation of boycott laws against Israel and impose sanctions accordingly.”

Eugene Kontorovich, a law professor at George Mason University’s Scalia Law School, said he thought that Turkey’s action “most probably violates the World Trade Organization’s agreements,” but not U.S. federal laws.

“As for a U.S. response, it is unlikely that Turkey’s selective export restrictions on products to Israel violate U.S. federal anti-boycott laws; state laws simply do not deal with boycotts imposed by countries,” Kontorovich told VOA.

Thirty-eight U.S. states have laws prohibiting states from contracting or investing in entities that boycott Israel.

Some analysts think that given the debate in Washington over sending aid to Israel, it is unlikely that Congress will take measures against Turkey.

“They have got a lot of things on their plate, and it seems to me unlikely that punishing Turkey for sanctions against Israel is going to be high on the congressional agenda anytime soon,” Makovsky said.

SOURCE VOA

Friday 12 April , 2024 {HMC}  U.S. President Joe Biden is hosting Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at the White House Thursday, aiming to send China a clear message to halt its aggressive behavior against its neighbors in the South China Sea.

The trilateral summit comes amid increased tension between Manila and Beijing. In recent weeks, Chinese Coast Guard ships have taken provocative actions to block resupply missions for Philippine soldiers stationed on the Second Thomas Shoal, who guard Manila’s sovereignty claims over the Spratly Islands.

These so-called gray zone tactics of intimidation fall dangerously close to triggering a mutual defense treaty between Washington and Manila and will be a focus in Thursday’s summit.

Key to the discussions is working toward a shared understanding on what constitutes gray zone attacks and the treaty’s enforcement threshold.

“We continue to coordinate very closely the question of China’s so-called gray zone tactics, its coercive tactics, and what the implications of those might be,” a senior administration official said in response to VOA’s question during a briefing Wednesday. The official spoke on condition of anonymity.

The U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to “armed attacks on Philippines Armed Forces, public vessels, or aircraft,” the official underscored. “That includes its Coast Guard, and that includes anywhere in the South China Sea.”

Biden and Kishida will show Marcos a “clear demonstration of support and resolve,” the official said. Leaders will convey that they “stand shoulder to shoulder with Marcos, ready to support and work with the Philippines at every turn.”

Gray zone tactics

China’s gray zone tactics have blurred the lines of what is traditionally seen as armed attacks by using force that may not be intentionally lethal, such as military-grade lasers, acoustic devices, high-pressure water cannon, or simply ramming into ships, said Gregory Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The problem is that these things are only non-lethal in a statistical sense,” Poling told VOA. “But if you do it enough, you will kill somebody.”

Manila and Washington would then need to determine whether to invoke mutual defense under the treaty, he added.

Both sides are realizing that “China has blurred the lines so much with its Coast Guard and militias,” he added, saying, “We can’t treat China the way we treat normal armed actors, that China intentionally hides its military force behind civilians, and that we need to be more flexible in our responses.”

Discussions are ongoing under the Maritime Security Framework signed by the U.S. and the Philippines in 2022. Known also as “Bantay Dagat,” or “Guardian of the Sea” in Tagalog, the agreement aims to improve regional maritime domain awareness and confront maritime challenges together.

Last year, the U.S. and Philippine secretaries of defense established guidelines reaffirming that “an armed attack in the Pacific, including anywhere in the South China Sea, on either of their public vessels, aircraft, or armed forces — which includes their Coast Guards — would invoke mutual defense commitments under Articles IV and V of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.”

“Recognizing that threats may arise in several domains — including land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace — and take the form of asymmetric, hybrid, and irregular warfare and gray-zone tactics, the guidelines chart a way forward to build interoperability in both conventional and non-conventional domains,” the Biden administration said in a statement.

Dialogue with Beijing

Ahead of their trilateral summit with Marcos, Biden and Kishida insist on fostering dialogue with Beijing, even as the U.S. and Japan ramp up defense ties.

In their latest phone conversation in April, Biden said he discussed with Chinese President Xi Jinping the “best way to reduce the chances of miscalculation and misunderstanding.”

“Our alliance we have with Japan — is purely defensive in nature,” he said during a joint press conference Wednesday with Kishida. “It’s not aimed at any one nation or a threat to the region. And it — it doesn’t have anything to do with conflict. And so, this is about restoring stability in the region. And I think we have a chance of doing that.”

Speaking through an interpreter Wednesday, Kishida said he and Biden “agreed that our two countries will continue to respond to challenges concerning China through close coordination.”

“At the same time, we confirmed the importance of continuing our dialogue with China and cooperating with China on common challenges,” he added.

Biden and Kishida announced initiatives to enhance bilateral defense ties and maritime cooperation in the South China Sea, as well as air defense.

“For the first time, Japan and the United States and Australia will create a network system of air missile and defense architecture,” Biden said.

Similar announcements with the Philippines are expected Thursday.

Beijing said it opposes “cobbling together exclusive groupings and stoking bloc confrontation in the region.”

“Such practices: patching up small blocs, stirring up confrontation under the excuse of cooperation, upholding peace and order in name but flexing military muscle and stoking chaos in nature, do not meet the trend for peace and development and run counter to the regional countries’ shared aspiration for stability and development,” Liu Pengyu, a Chinese Embassy spokesperson in the U.S., said in a statement to VOA.

The U.S.-Japan-Philippines trilateral is the first gathering of its kind, part of Biden’s strategy to stitch together existing bilateral alliances into these so-called “minilaterals” to amplify U.S. influence in Asia. Last year, he hosted a similar meeting with Japan and South Korea to deal with the threat from North Korea.

SOURSE 

VOA

Friday 12 April , 2024 {HMC}  Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud arrived in Nairobi, Kenya, on Thursday for a one-day official visit.

The spokesperson of the Somali Presidential Palace, Abdirahman Hudeyfi, stated that the president’s trip aims to strengthen the relationship between the two countries and enhance cooperation in trade and the fight against terrorism.

However, Kenyan President William Ruto has recently been involved in diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, which arose after Ethiopia’s Prime Minister signed an MoU with Somaliland. This agreement grants Ethiopia access to the sea in exchange for international recognition of Somaliland.

President Hassan Sheikh had previously declined a meeting with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, setting a condition that Ethiopia cancel the agreement with Somaliland first.

Somalia – which considers Somaliland to be part of its territory – has previously described the move as an act of aggression.

Both the African Union and the US have backed the territorial integrity of Somalia and urged all parties to cool tensions.

SOURCE 

Thursday April 11, 2024

Police in Kenya have arrested seven suspects in connection with a gang rape of a woman in western Bomet county.

The incident, captured in a viral video, happened in Chebanyi village last December, the police said.

The clip trending as “sigor boys” on X, formerly known as Twitter, shows several men in a dimly lit room taking turns to sexually assault a woman, who is heard screaming.

The video has shocked the country, with many calling for justice to the unidentified woman.

Police said in a statement on Thursday they arrested the suspects following an operation in the area.

Two of the suspects were positively identified and police say they are pursuing the other individuals.

Police said that they will bring the suspects to court and apply to hold them for longer to complete investigation.

Thursday April 11, 2024

Ethiopian diplomatic personnel in other autonomous regions of the country, such as Hargeisha and Garowe, have also been expelled back to Adis Adeba.

On Wednesday, Somalia expelled the Ethiopian ambassador, Mukhtar Mohamed, due to tensions since the port agreement with the separatist region of Somaliland.

Ethiopian diplomatic personnel in other autonomous regions of the country, such as Hargeisha and Garowe, have also been expelled back to Adis Adeba.

The conflict that led to this diplomatic rupture was the lease agreement of 20 miles of coastal territory by Ethiopia to Somaliland, a region that has had effective autonomy since 1991.

The area occupied by Adis Adeba would be the Gulf of Aden. Ethiopia would use the coastal enclave for military and commercial purposes for 50 years, according to the signed agreement. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognizing Somaliland as an independent State of Somalia.

On the other hand, the Somali Government claims Somaliland as its territory and accused Ethiopia of land grabbing and attempts to annex Somali territories to Adis ADeba.

The President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, declared that, “Somalia stands firm in its sovereignty” also indicated, that his country would “defend itself” if Ethiopia continues with the agreement.

Friday  12,April 2024 {HMC}  The ICC International Maritime Bureau (IMB) reports a worrisome increase in maritime piracy off the coast of Somalia in the first quarter of 2024.

The first three months of 2024 saw a rise in incidents of piracy and armed robbery against ships globally, with 33 incidents recorded, compared to 27 during the same period in 2023.

Among the reported incidents, pirates boarded 24 vessels, attempted attacks on six, hijacked two, and fired upon one. Violence towards crew members is also escalating, with 35 taken hostage, nine kidnapped, and one threatened.

The report highlights a worrying trend of Somali pirate activity with two reported hijackings and pirates demonstrated an increased ability to target vessels at greater distances from the Somali coast.

One notable incident involved a Bangladesh-flagged bulk carrier M/V Abdullah, hijacked on March 12 with its 23 crew members taken hostage by over 20 Somali pirates. The vessel was approximately 550 nautical miles from Mogadishu at the time of the incident.

IMB has expressed concern over several reported hijacked dhows and fishing vessels, which pirates use as mother ships to launch attacks far from the Somali coastline.

“The resurgence of Somali pirate activity is worrying, and it is crucial to protect trade, safeguard routes, and the safety of seafarers who keep commerce moving,” said ICC Secretary General John W.H. Denton.

The IMB commended authorities for their actions in responding. One notable operation by the Indian Navy in March resulted in the capture of 35 Somali pirates and the release of a previously hijacked vessel and its 17 crew.

IMB Director Michael Howlett urged vessel owners and Masters to adhere to recommended guidelines in the latest version of the Best Management Practices (BMP 5). He also praised the Indian navy and Seychelles coast guard for intercepting hijacked vessels, safeguarding crews, and capturing pirates.

Meanwhile, incidents in Gulf of Guinea waters continue at a reduced level, with six reported in Q1 2024 compared to five in the same period of 2023. However, caution is still urged due to the continued threat of piracy and armed robbery, as evidenced by the kidnapping of nine crew members from a tanker in January 2024.

There has been a rise in low-level opportunistic crimes in Bangladeshi waters and the Singapore Straits in 2024, posing a threat to crew safety with incidents of hostage-taking reported.

SOURCE 

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Mike Schuler