Sunday 29, Dec,2024 {HMC} A new report from the African Narratives think tank reveals that a recent reconciliation agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia, brokered by Turkey, is forcing Egypt to re-evaluate its strategic position in the Horn of Africa. The agreement, announced on 11 December 2024, raises significant questions about Egypt’s influence in the region and may require a recalibration of its diplomatic and security policies, according to the analysis released on Thursday. The report suggests that Cairo can no longer take its regional role for granted, and must actively respond to these shifting dynamics.

The African Narratives report details how relations between Somalia and Ethiopia sharply deteriorated earlier in 2024, following Ethiopia’s signing of a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway Somaliland region. This agreement, which granted Ethiopia access to ports and military bases in Somaliland in exchange for initiating the process of recognising Somaliland’s independence, triggered a sharp response from Mogadishu, with tensions escalating throughout the year. Somalia’s decision to exclude Ethiopian forces from the African Union mission and establish a new mission to commence in early 2025 further highlighted the fractured relationship.

The “Ankara Declaration,” as the new agreement is known, aims to de-escalate these tensions, the report states. However, the accord notably avoids directly addressing the core disputes between Somalia and Ethiopia, opting instead for technical negotiations to be concluded by the end of February 2025. These talks are intended to establish a framework for cooperation and resolve lingering issues between the two sides. However, the report cautions that the absence of concrete solutions within the declaration itself leaves many questions unanswered.

According to the official Turkish statement, the Ankara agreement is limited to an exchange of understandings regarding bilateral principles, with Ethiopia reaffirming its support for Somali unity and sovereignty, while Somalia recognises Ethiopia’s need for access to its coast for economic purposes. The report points out that this is essentially a restatement of broad objectives, lacking the tangible commitments necessary to ensure long-term stability.

Despite the agreement’s limitations, the African Narratives report acknowledges that it does present certain advantages for the involved parties. However, for Egypt, it presents a complex strategic puzzle.

Turkey’s mediation, primarily driven by its ambition to become a major player in the Horn of Africa, benefits from this accord, the report suggests. Ankara’s influence in Somalia is substantial, including economic aid and military support. This agreement reinforces Turkey’s role as a regional mediator, enhancing its strategic position. Ethiopia, too, gains by securing access to Somali ports, reducing regional tensions, and allowing its government to focus on internal conflicts. However, for Somalia the benefits of the deal, especially on military issues, are still limited.

The Somali government, for its part, hopes to strengthen stability and create new economic avenues. However, Mogadishu remains wary of granting Addis Ababa military privileges on its coasts, given the implications for its sovereignty. This cautious approach highlights a potential point of contention in the future.

Somali-Ethiopian reconciliation prompts Egypt to reassess regional role: African Narratives

The report makes clear that several obstacles could impede this fragile reconciliation. The presence of terrorist groups, most notably Al-Shabaab and the growing presence of ISIS, could pose significant threats to the region, particularly if Somalia relies on certain ports. Further, the volatile nature of the Middle East, coupled with increasing global competition for influence in the Horn of Africa, could undermine the stability of the entire region.

The report then turns its attention to Egypt’s strategic dilemma. Egypt recently supported Somalia by providing military equipment and reaffirming its commitment to Somali sovereignty. However, the rapprochement between Somalia and Ethiopia creates a complex situation.

While Somalia continues to view Egypt as an important military partner, its willingness to engage with Ethiopia on economic issues complicates matters. Egypt now risks losing influence in the region, as Somalia seeks to balance its relationships with both Cairo and Addis Ababa. Egypt’s existing military ties to Somalia may not be enough to counter the shift towards closer cooperation between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa.

Furthermore, African Narratives report argues that Ethiopia’s potential access to the Red Sea coast could pose a significant challenge to Egyptian interests, especially if it leads to increased Ethiopian influence over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden, which are critical for the Suez Canal. Economically, the report adds, the agreement could limit Egyptian investment in the region, particularly given Turkey’s rising influence. Though Egypt remains a significant presence in Africa, the reconciliation could have a palpable effect on its regional sway.

Despite these concerns, the report suggests that “Somalia will not risk its relationship with Egypt, Eritrea, and Djibouti.” and that Mogadishu will likely resist granting Ethiopia military access to its ports. Additionally, Turkey, having recently improved its relations with Egypt, is unlikely to risk a confrontation that might jeopardise navigation to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The report also highlights that Egypt is a key player in the region, with strong ties to Djibouti, Eritrea and Somalia.

This was apparent on Friday evening, as the United Nations Security Council has authorised a new African Union stabilisation and support mission in Somalia, known as AUSSOM, which will replace the current, larger AU anti-terrorism operation from 1 January 2025.

During the Security Council meeting, the Federal Government of Somalia declared that Ethiopia would not be part of AUSSOM. Somalia stated that it has secured the necessary 11,000 security personnel through existing bilateral agreements with other countries.

The report proposes that Egypt should seize the opportunity to formulate a cooperation agreement with both Somalia and Ethiopia, aimed at economic integration, countering regional terrorist threats, and promoting stability. This cooperation could also provide Egypt a way to safeguard its own interests, while ensuring the security of the Suez Canal. Turkey could act as a viable sponsor for such a trilateral agreement.

Ultimately, the report concludes that the success of the Somali-Ethiopian agreement remains contingent on future negotiations and political realities. For Egypt, it mandates a serious reassessment of its strategic role in the Horn of Africa, requiring proactive measures to safeguard its influence and protect its interests in the region. The report stresses that Cairo can no longer rely on the status quo and must adopt a more dynamic and adaptable approach.

African Narratives for Strategic Studies is a Pan-African nonprofit policy research organisation committed to reshaping the global understanding of Africa while addressing the continent’s most pressing challenges. With a core focus on democracy, security, energy, economic development and human rights, they amplify African voices and perspectives to foster informed discourse, inspire innovative solutions, and promote sustainable progress.

Sunday 29, Dec,2024 {HMC} Somali National Army (SNA) forces have apprehended key figures, including local officials and elders, following the brutal ambush that claimed the lives of six soldiers and their driver in El-Baraf, Middle Shabelle.

The attack, described as a revenge killing, targeted soldiers on leave travelling to their families in Hiiraan. Local sources report that militia fighters ambushed the group, executing the victims, all members of the Hawadle clan, in a calculated assault. Suspicion has mounted over the involvement of district officials, including Governor Yusuf Hassan Hurshow, who has since been suspended for alleged negligence.

In response to the attack, Hirshabelle’s Minister of Interior, Abdi Daahir Gure Karore, announced the suspension of Governor Hurshow and pledged full accountability. “We are tracking all suspects, and no one involved will escape justice,” he declared. Joint operations between federal and Hirshabelle forces have intensified, with several arrests already made.

“The perpetrators are known and will face justice,” warned MP Abdimalik Abdala.

Hirshabelle President Ali Abdullahi Hussein Gudlawe echoed this sentiment, urging calm while security forces pursue those responsible. “I call on our people to remain united. Justice will prevail, and we must not allow our enemies to exploit our divisions,” he stated.

El-Baraf, a district marred by persistent insecurity, has long been a flashpoint for clan-related violence. Rivalries between the Hawadle and Abgaal clans have been weaponized by Al-Shabaab, which seeks to destabilize communities through calculated provocations. In this case, the militants allegedly sought to deepen divisions, recording evidence of the attack to amplify its impact.

Sunday 29, Dec,2024 {HMC} Somalia and Tanzania have agreed to restore direct flights between Mogadishu and Dar es Salaam, a pivotal step in fostering trade, tourism, and cultural exchange between the two nations.

The restoration of direct flights is expected to eliminate the need for connections through Nairobi or Addis Ababa, significantly reducing travel time and costs. The move is anticipated to bolster economic growth and enhance collaboration between the two nations.

“Improved air connectivity is not just a logistical achievement; it’s a lifeline for trade and tourism,” said Dr. Pindi Hazara Chana, Tanzania’s Minister of Tourism and Resources.

The agreements also extend to defence and security, with both nations committing to enhanced counter-terrorism efforts and border management. The collaboration aims to address threats such as organized crime and militant activity, particularly in light of Somalia’s ongoing battle against Al-Shabaab. Tanzanian authorities pledged to assist Somalia by sharing intelligence and providing scholarships for Somali students in security and law enforcement training.

The two countries plan to work jointly on public health improvements and medical advancements in healthcare, addressing long-standing challenges in both nations. Somalia’s Health Minister, Dr. Abdi Adan, and Tanzania’s Deputy Health Minister, Dr. Godwin Mollel, stressed the importance of this partnership in tackling pressing healthcare issues.

It marked the first high-level Tanzanian delegation to visit Somalia since the outbreak of civil war in 1991. Both nations share a history of cooperation, including Somalia’s mediation of a peace deal between Tanzania and Uganda in 1972, which delayed a five-year regional war.

The agreements come less than a year after Somalia joined the East African Community (EAC) in December 2023, a move that has bolstered its regional influence. Somalia’s Ambassador to Tanzania, Ilyas Ali Hassan, played an important role in facilitating the agreements that align with EAC’s economic and political integration goals. “These agreements are not just ink on paper; they represent a turning point in our shared history,” Hassan said.

Tourism is another cornerstone of the agreements. The direct flights are expected to promote cultural exchanges and open up new avenues for investment. Tanzania’s tourism minister invited members of the Somali diaspora to explore business opportunities in Tanzania. “Today, we signed bilateral agreements that will further strengthen our relations,” Chana said. “We welcome the Somali diaspora to invest in Tanzania, which is open for business to all Somalis.”

The agreements also include the revival of the Joint Ministerial Cooperation Commission (JMCC), first established under President Siad Barre’s administration. The framework will facilitate dialogue and address emerging issues, ensuring a sustained partnership between the two nations.